Bill Ackman: Investing, Financial Battles, Harvard, DEI, X & Free Speech | Lex Fridman Podcast #413

章节 1：价值投资的基础与本·格雷厄姆的启发

📝 本节摘要：

本章作为开篇，主持人 Lex Fridman 简要介绍了传奇激进投资者比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）的背景。阿克曼分享了对他职业生涯影响深远的启蒙著作——本杰明·格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。他详细阐述了价格与价值的本质区别，解释了市场作为“短期投票机”与“长期称重机”的经典隐喻，并深刻剖析了投机与投资的根本差异。阿克曼提出，投资的核心在于将股票视作生意的权益，去预测一家企业在其生命周期内能产生的现金流现值；而他毕生追求的，正是寻找那些在极长周期内具有极高确定性的稀缺公司。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The only person who cause you more harm than a thief with the dagger is a journalist with a pen.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 唯一能比拿匕首的窃贼对你造成更大伤害的人，是拿笔的记者。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: The following is a conversation with Bill Ackman, a legendary activist investor who has been part of some of the biggest and at times controversial trades in history.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 以下是与比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）的对话，他是一位传奇的激进投资者（activist investor），曾参与过历史上一些规模最大、有时也备受争议的交易。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Also, he is fearlessly vocal on X, FKA Twitter and uses the platform to fight for ideas he believes in.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 此外，他在 X（原名 Twitter）上无所畏惧地发声，利用该平台为他所信仰的理念而战。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: For example, he was a central figure in the resignation of the President of Harvard University, Claudine Gay, the saga of which we discuss in this episode.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 例如，他是哈佛大学校长克劳汀·盖伊（Claudine Gay）辞职事件的核心人物，我们将在本期节目中讨论这一事件的始末。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: This is The Lex Fridman Podcast, to support it please check out our sponsors in the description. And now dear friends, here's Bill Ackman.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 这里是 Lex Fridman 播客，如需支持本节目，请查看简介中的赞助商链接。现在，亲爱的朋友们，有请比尔·阿克曼。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: In your lecture on the basics of finance and investing, you mention a book, "Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life. What key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing?

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 在你关于金融和投资基础知识的演讲中，你提到本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的《聪明的投资者》（Intelligent Investor）一书对你的人生具有塑造意义。你从这本书中学到了什么关键教训，从而指导了你自己的投资？

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Sure. Actually it was the first investment book I read, and as such, it was kind of the inspiration for my career and a lot of my life, so important book.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 当然。实际上这是我读的第一本投资书，正因如此，它成为了我职业生涯乃至人生大部分时光的灵感来源，这是一本非常重要的书。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression, people lost confidence investing in markets, World War II and then he writes this book, it's for like the average man.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你要知道，这大致是在大萧条之后，人们对市场投资失去了信心，经历了二战，然后他写了这本书，这就像是为普通人写的。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value, right? Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 基本上他说你必须理解价格（price）和价值（value）之间的区别，对吧？价格是你所支付的，价值是你所得到的。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And he said the stock market is here to serve you.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他还说，股票市场是为你服务的。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every day and makes you an offer for your house. Makes you a stupid offer you ignore it, makes you a great offer, you can take it.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这有点像那个每天过来为你房子出价的邻居。如果他给你一个愚蠢的出价，你就不理他；如果他给你一个极好的出价，你就可以接受。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's the stock market. And the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就是股票市场。关键是要弄清楚某样东西值多少钱，你必须去权衡它。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: He talked about the difference between, he said the stock market in the short term is a voting machine. It represents speculative interests, supply and demand of people in the short term.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他谈到了这其中的区别，他说股票市场在短期内是一台投票机（voting machine）。它代表了短期的投机利益，以及人们在短期内的供求关系。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: But in the long term the stock market is a weighing machine, you know, much more accurate. It's gonna tell you what something's worth.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 但从长期来看，股票市场是一台称重机（weighing machine），你知道的，它要准确得多。它会告诉你某样东西到底值多少钱。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And so if you can define what something's worth, then you can really take advantage of the market 'cause it's really here to help you. And that's kinda the message of the book.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 因此，如果你能定义某样东西的价值，那么你就能真正利用好市场，因为它确实是在帮助你。这差不多就是这本书传达的信息。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: In that same way, there's a kind of difference between speculation and investing.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 同样地，投机（speculation）和投资（investing）之间也存在着某种区别。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Yeah, speculation is just, it's a bit like buying trading crypto, right?

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 是的，投机仅仅是，这有点像买卖交易加密货币（crypto），对吧？

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: Strong words.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 措辞很犀利啊。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: (laughs) Well, short term trading crypto, maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value, but many investors in a bubble going into the crash were really just pure speculators.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: （笑）嗯，短期交易加密货币，也许从长远来看存在内在价值，但在泡沫走向崩溃的过程中，许多投资者实际上纯粹只是投机者。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: They didn't know what things were worth, they just knew they were going up, that's speculation.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 他们不知道这些东西值多少钱，他们只知道它们在上涨，这就是投机。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And investing is doing your homework, digging down, understanding a business, understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry, understanding what management's gonna do, understanding what price you're gonna pay,

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而投资是做好你的功课，深入挖掘，理解一门生意，理解一个行业的竞争动态，理解管理层将会做什么，理解你将要支付的价格，

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: the value of anything I would say, other than love let's say, is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 我会说，除了爱之外，任何事物的价值，都是你在其生命周期内能从中提取的现金的现值（present value）。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: Now some people think about love that way, but it's not, it's not the right way to think about love, but it's... Yeah.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 虽然有些人也是这么看待爱的，但事实并非如此，这不是看待爱的正确方式，但它是……是的。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So investing is about basically building a model of what this business is gonna produce over its lifetime.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，投资从根本上说，就是建立一个关于这门生意在其生命周期内将产出什么的模型。

[原文] [Lex Fridman]: So how do you get to that, this idea of called value investing? How do you get to the value of a thing, even like philosophically value of anything really. But we can just talk about the things that are on the stock market, companies.

[译文] [Lex Fridman]: 那么你如何触及那个点，也就是所谓的价值投资（value investing）的理念？你如何得出一个事物的价值，甚至从哲学意义上来说任何事物的价值。不过我们只讨论股票市场上的事物就好，也就是公司。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The value of a security, the value is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 证券的价值，其价值就是你在它的生命周期内能从中提取的现金的现值。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So if you think about a bond, a bond pays a 5% coupon interest rate, you get that let's say every year or twice a year, split in half.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以，如果你考虑一张债券，债券支付 5% 的票面利率（coupon interest rate），比方说你每年或者每年两次（分成两半）获得这笔利息。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And it's very predictable. And if it's a US government bond you know you're gonna get it, so that's a pretty easy thing to value.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 它是非常可预测的。如果这是一张美国政府债券，你知道你肯定能拿到钱，所以这是件很容易估值的事情。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: A stock is an interest in a business. It's like owning a piece of a company, and a business, a profitable one is like a bond in that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow every year.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 股票是对一门生意的权益。这就像拥有一家公司的一部分，而一门生意，一门赚钱的生意就像债券一样，因为它每年都会产生这些“票息”，或者说这些收益或现金流。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: The difference with a stock and a bond is that the bond, it's a contract. You know what you're gonna get as long as they don't go bankrupt and default.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 股票和债券的区别在于，债券是一份合同。只要他们不破产和违约，你就知道自己将得到什么。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: With the stock you have to make predictions about the business.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 而对于股票，你必须对这门生意做出预测。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: You know how many widgets are gonna sell this year, how many gonna sell next year? What are the costs gonna be? How much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going?

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 你要知道今年会卖出多少个小玩意，明年会卖出多少个？成本会是多少？他们产生的资金中有多少需要重新投资到这门生意中，以维持其运转？

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And that's more complicated. But what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence, we know what those cash flows are gonna be for a very long time.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 这就复杂得多了。但我们所做的，是试图寻找那些我们有极高信心、知道它们在极长一段时间内的现金流会是多少的生意。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And the very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 以及那些你能对其抱有极高确定性的极少数生意。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: And as a result many investments are speculations 'cause it's really very difficult to predict the future.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 正因如此，许多投资其实是投机，因为预测未来真的非常困难。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: So what we do for a living, what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're gonna look like over a very long period of time.

[译文] [Bill Ackman]: 所以我们以此为生的手段，我以此为生的手段，就是去寻找那些你能大致预测出它们在极长一段时间内会是什么样子的稀缺公司。