I'm 80 and I wasted 25 years of my life. Don't make my mistake. - Howard Marks

章节 1：霍华德·马克斯谈AI冲击与投资者的养成

📝 本节摘要：

霍华德·马克斯谈到，儿子提醒他 AI 变化太快，促使他重写 AI 泡沫备忘录。他认为 AI 的自主性与难以预测前所未有，会让名不副实的从业者现形，但凭直觉识人、判断无历史可循的新情况仍需有经验的人。谈及优秀投资者能否后天培养，他认为方法能让人更好却未必卓越，并回忆了《投资最重要的事》第一章的缘起。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: If you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 如果你非要等到没什么可怕的时候再出手，机会多半已经过去了。

[原文] [Sam Parr]: Howard, it's good to see you again. We had a lot of fun last time and we were like, "Look, I don't know if other people are going to like that, but we loved that." And then over a million people listened to the last one. And so, this morning I was reading, you wrote this blog post about how you changed your mind about AI. You had written, I don't know, a couple months back about the possibility of an AI bubble, and then, as a good thinker tends to do, you got new facts, you sort of reassessed the situation, you wrote a new post about AI. Do you want to summarize the story of how you changed your mind on AI?

[译文] [Sam Parr]: 霍华德，很高兴再次见到你。上次我们聊得特别开心，当时我们还想：“说实话，不知道别人会不会喜欢，反正我们自己是很喜欢。”结果上一期有超过一百万人收听。今天早上我在读你写的一篇文章，讲你怎么改变了对 AI 的看法。大概几个月前，你写过一篇讨论 AI 可能存在泡沫的文章。后来，就像优秀的思考者常做的那样，你掌握了新的事实，重新评估了形势，又写了一篇关于 AI 的新文章。能不能简单讲讲，你是怎么改变对 AI 的看法的？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Well, the story's very simple. I have this son named Andrew. He's a VC. He's dealing with AI every day. His companies use AI, some of them create AI, etc. I had written the first memo around December 9th, as I recall, and then in early February he said, "Dad, so much has happened. You have to update the memo." And so, I rewrote the memo entirely.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 其实很简单。我有个儿子叫 Andrew，他是做风险投资（VC）的，每天都在跟 AI 打交道。他投的公司有的在用 AI，有的在开发 AI，诸如此类。我记得第一篇备忘录是 12 月 9 号左右写的，到了 2 月初，他跟我说：“爸，这段时间发生了太多事，你得更新一下那篇备忘录。”于是我把它彻底重写了一遍。

[原文] [Shaan Puri]: I was rereading one of your old books. And you repeat this phrase a bunch, which is like, it's important to be rational, and you can't get seduced into thinking something is a good idea, because that's when smart people can make bad decisions, when you get emotional about something. But then when I was reading part two, I was like, "Howard, you sound a little seduced. You sound a little seduced. You sound like you're into this. Are you at all approaching this in an emotional way, you think?"

[译文] [Shaan Puri]: 我最近在重读你的一本旧书。书里你反复强调一个意思：保持理性很重要，不能被诱惑，一头热地认定某件事是好主意。因为人一旦动了感情，聪明人也会做出糟糕的决定。可我读你的第二篇备忘录时，心里想：“霍华德，你听起来有点被迷住了，真的有点被迷住了，好像挺上头的。”你觉得自己在这件事上，有没有带一点情绪？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: It depends on your definition of emotional. I upgraded my opinion of AI and its potential because of its ability to talk about its own strengths and weaknesses, to use humor, to put information in the context of me, to use what it knows about me. And you know, this is really exceptional stuff. There's a quality to AI, or more than one quality, which are unprecedented, in my opinion. The first, the obvious one, is autonomy. All the other technological innovations, from the railroad to computers to the internet, etc., were all tools, or things to speed up and increase productivity.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 这要看你怎么定义“情绪化”。我之所以提高了对 AI 及其潜力的评价，是因为它能谈论自己的长处和短处，会用幽默，能把信息放到我的具体情境里讲，还能运用它对我的了解。这真的非常了不起。在我看来，AI 有一种特质，或者说不止一种，是前所未有的。第一个、也是最明显的，就是自主性。此前所有的技术创新，从铁路到计算机，再到互联网等等，都只是工具，是用来提速、提高生产率的东西。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: There's never been anything with the quality of autonomy. The idea that you can give it a job and not tell it how to do it, and it'll figure it out, is really unique. And what comes with that, yeah, of course, is this nagging concern that it may take over. So, that's really important. The other thing, and this is not kind of quantifiable, is there's never been anything, in my opinion, so unpredictable. I don't think anybody knows the shape of the future. So, I have never had that sense before.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 以前从来没有哪样东西具备自主性。你交给它一项任务，不用告诉它怎么做，它自己就能琢磨出来，这一点真的独一无二。当然，随之而来的是一种挥之不去的担忧：它可能会失控、反客为主。所以这一点非常重要。另一点虽然没法量化，但在我看来，从来没有哪样东西像它这么难以预测。我觉得没有人知道未来会是什么样子。这种感觉，我以前从来没有过。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I never thought that the internet, for example, was beyond comprehension or beyond prediction.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 比如说互联网，我就从来没觉得它超出了人们的理解或预测能力。

[原文] [Sam Parr]: Do you think that AI will be able to do what you do? And I know you talk about this in the memo. And I got to be honest, when I read it, I almost felt like, you know, you read stories about Warren Buffett reading the Moody's manual page by page, 800 companies, and trying to digest that information. Well, AI can do that in a heartbeat, right? A lot of the things that go into making investment decisions, it can do very well, very fast.

[译文] [Sam Parr]: 你觉得 AI 能做你做的事吗？我知道你在备忘录里谈过这个问题。老实说，我读的时候有种感觉：你看那些讲沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的故事，他把穆迪手册一页一页地翻，八百家公司，努力消化所有信息。可 AI 一眨眼就能做完，对吧？投资决策里的很多环节，它都能做得又好又快。

[原文] [Sam Parr]: And then also it's advancing so fast. So, you know, whatever we thought it could do 3 years ago is laughable compared to what it can do today. And as you pointed out, even 3 months ago. So, I guess in your heart of hearts, do you think, in the future, the next Howard Marks is not a human, but maybe a human with AI, or just AI?

[译文] [Sam Parr]: 而且它进步得太快了。三年前我们以为它能做的事，跟它今天的能力比起来简直可笑。正如你指出的，哪怕跟三个月前比也是如此。所以我想问，你内心深处是否认为，未来的下一个霍华德·马克斯不会是一个人，而可能是一个借助 AI 的人，甚至干脆就是 AI？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Everything I say on the subject I preface with: I'm no expert. But I think I told the story in the memo about the fact that indexation put a lot of people out of the equity business because, you know, it disclosed that they couldn't do what they claimed to do. And most active equity investors underperformed the averages. And AI will unfrock or defrock another group of people whose talents are not as great as they purport. I used to say about computers, you know, when I went to school and learned about computers, all they could do was read, remember, add, subtract, and compare.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我在这个话题上说的每句话，都得先声明：我不是专家。我在备忘录里讲过一件事：指数化投资让很多人退出了股票投资行业，因为它暴露出这些人做不到他们自称能做到的事。大多数主动型股票投资者的业绩都跑输了平均水平。AI 也会让另一批人现出原形，他们的本事其实没有自己宣称的那么大。我以前常说，我上学学计算机的时候，计算机能做的只有读取、记忆、加、减和比较。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: They could do it with a lot of data. They could do it really fast. They could do it without making arithmetic mistakes. They could do it without making emotional mistakes. So, while the list was limited, it was still better than most people. Now, what's the list for AI? Is the list for AI unlimited or limited? That's a big part of the question right there. I don't know the answer. Maybe you do. And then, is there anything left that AI can't do?

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但它们能处理大量数据，速度非常快，不会算错，也不会因为情绪犯错。所以虽然能做的事有限，它们还是比大多数人强。那么 AI 能做的事有哪些？这份清单是无限的，还是有限的？这正是问题的关键所在。我不知道答案，也许你知道。再进一步问：还有什么是 AI 做不到的吗？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: And one example is, I think we've helped our clients over the years by not investing with bad people. And sometimes you talk to people and, for undefinable reasons, you just say, you know what? It doesn't feel right. As somebody said to me, the hair on the back of your neck goes up. And if that's true, and if AI doesn't have hair on its neck, then maybe there's a role left for experienced investors with judgment. I believe so. First of all, there will always be things for which there is no history to train on.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 举个例子，我认为这些年我们帮到客户的一点，就是不跟坏人做投资。有时你跟一个人聊着聊着，说不清为什么，就是觉得：不对劲。就像有人跟我说的，你后脖颈的汗毛会竖起来。如果真是这样，而 AI 又没有脖子上的汗毛，那么有判断力的资深投资人或许还有用武之地。我相信是这样的。首先，总会有一些事情，根本没有历史数据可供训练。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: And to the extent that a certain big percentage of what AI does is knowing history and recognizing and extrapolating patterns, there will always be stuff for which there is no history. There are just some people who have a better understanding of the probability distribution that defines future events.

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 既然 AI 做的事有很大一部分是了解历史、识别规律并据此外推，那就总会有一些没有先例可循的情况。而有些人就是更懂得那张决定未来事件走向的概率分布。

[原文] [Shaan Puri]: I was reading this book on Steve Cohen. And there was this part where they were describing how he was kind of like the man at a very young age. They were like, he can just feel the ticker. He just, like, is in tune and in flow with it. And I was like, oh, that's beautiful, but, like, this I can't replicate. And I was always curious about that because I think in one of your books, I think you had said something like, I can make someone better, but I don't think I can make them great. Can you talk to that, about, like, what it is that makes someone who is a good investor good, but also how the average person could get better? Or do you believe that's not even possible, that you just have it or you don't?

[译文] [Shaan Puri]: 我之前在读一本讲史蒂夫·科恩（Steve Cohen）的书。书里有一段描写他年纪轻轻就已经是圈子里的大人物了。书里说，他能直接“感觉”到行情报价，好像和市场完全同频、进入了心流状态。我当时就想，哇，这太美妙了，但这种东西我可学不来。我一直对这一点很好奇，因为我记得您在某本书里说过类似的话：我能让一个人变得更好，但我不认为我能让他变得卓越。您能聊聊这个吗？一个优秀的投资者到底优秀在哪里？普通人又该怎么提升？还是说您认为这根本不可能，天赋这东西要么有、要么没有？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: Well, in my first book, The Most Important Thing — Columbia, which published the book, were talking about the... They said, "Well, write us a sample chapter." So, I sat down and I wrote a chapter that I had never even thought about. And it turned out to be the first chapter in the book, and it says,

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 嗯，我的第一本书《投资最重要的事》（The Most Important Thing）是哥伦比亚大学出版社出版的，当时他们在谈……他们说：“那你先给我们写一章样章吧。”于是我坐下来，写了一章我之前压根没想过的内容。结果这一章成了全书的第一章，里面写道：

[原文] [Sam Parr]: On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive. Well, lucky for you, the team at HubSpot, they have pulled out the principles that matter most and turned it into a very simple, easy-to-read wealth guide. It's 35 principles from the top investors. We're talking guys who have been on the pod like Howard Marks, Mohnish Pabrai, Morgan Housel, Cathie Wood, and a ton of others. So, these are all their frameworks, their mental models, their rules — basically how to play the long game and how to avoid ruin. You can get it in the link below.

[译文] [Sam Parr]: 在这档节目里，我们花了大量时间和当今最顶尖的一批投资人对话。好消息是，HubSpot 团队把其中最关键的原则提炼了出来，做成了一份简单易读的财富指南，收录了顶级投资人的 35 条原则。这些人都上过我们的播客，比如霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）、莫尼什·帕伯莱（Mohnish Pabrai）、摩根·豪泽尔（Morgan Housel）、凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood），还有很多其他人。里面都是他们的思考框架、思维模型和行事准则，说白了就是怎么做长期主义、怎么避免满盘皆输。点击下方链接就能领取。