Bill Ackman: How to Make Your First $1 Million in the Stock Market

章节 1：危机中的投资机遇与阿克曼的制胜法则

📝 本节摘要：

本章揭示了比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）在市场恐慌期的反常识投资哲学。当不确定性达到顶峰、市场出现无差别抛售时，资产价格往往远低于公允价值，这正是资本部署的绝佳时机。阿克曼在2020年市场崩盘期间，凭借2700万美元的押注在一个月内斩获了26亿美元的惊人回报，随后他将这笔资金精准抄底了希尔顿酒店和劳氏等优质蓝筹股。本段指出，普通投资者应该在市场平静时积累现金并做好“真正的企业研究”，提前准备好目标公司的购物清单，以便在危机降临时能够以折扣价大胆买入，从而实现财富的跨越式增长。最后引出了一个关于深度投资研究服务的广告。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: if you wait until the uncertainty goes away then everything reprices you know is much more likely to go back to fair value so the best time to be an investor deploying capital is

[译文] [比尔·阿克曼]: 如果你等到不确定性消失，那么所有资产都会重新定价，你知道，它们极有可能回落到公允价值（fair value），因此作为一名部署资本的投资者，最佳时机是——

[原文] [Narrator]: Bill Aman just revealed why the next market crash could hand you the single greatest wealth building opportunity of your lifetime while 99% of investors will panic sell at the worst possible moment Aman made $2.6 billion in just 27 days during the 2020 crash not million billion

[译文] [旁白]: 比尔·阿克曼刚刚揭示了为什么下一次市场崩盘可能会带给你一生中最大的财富积累机会，当99%的投资者会在最糟糕的时刻进行恐慌性抛售时，阿克曼在2020年崩盘期间仅用27天就赚取了26亿美元，不是百万，是十亿（billion）。

[原文] [Narrator]: and here's what most people don't understand every major fortune in history was built during a crisis rockefeller in 1907 Kennedy in 1929 Buffett in 2008 and right now Aman's preparing for the next one because he knows something you don't

[译文] [旁白]: 而这是大多数人不了解的事实，历史上每一笔巨额财富都是在危机期间建立的，1907年的洛克菲勒，1929年的肯尼迪，2008年的巴菲特，而现在阿克曼正在为下一次危机做准备，因为他知道一些你不知道的事情。

[原文] [Narrator]: the scariest days in the market have historically produced 150% returns within 18 months miss those days and you miss the entire decade of gains in the next few minutes you'll discover Aman's exact threepart formula for turning market terror into generational wealth the same playbook that turned his funds $27 million bet into 2.6 billion let me show you why the world's smartest money is secretly hoping for a crash

[译文] [旁白]: 市场中最可怕的日子在历史上往往能在18个月内产生150%的回报，错过了这些日子，你就会错过整整十年的收益。在接下来的几分钟里，你将发现阿克曼将市场恐慌转化为世代财富（generational wealth）的精确三步公式，这正是将他基金的2700万美元押注变成26亿美元的同一套剧本，让我来告诉你为什么世界上最聪明的资金在暗中盼望着崩盘。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: anytime that something happens in markets that creates uncertainty generally stocks go down risk premium risk premia uh go up um and if you wait until the uncertainty goes away then everything reprices you know is much more likely to go back to fair value so the best time to be an investor deploying capital is in a period of maximum uncertainty um whether it was COVID you know now the tariffs um the financial crisis you know each of these events that seemed catastrophic it was an amazing time to deploy capital

[译文] [比尔·阿克曼]: 任何时候市场中发生造成不确定性的事件，股票通常会下跌，风险溢价（risk premium）...风险溢价会上升。如果你等到不确定性消失，那么一切都会重新定价，你知道的，它极有可能回到公允价值（fair value）。因此，对于部署资本的投资者来说，最好的时机就是在不确定性达到顶峰的时期。无论是新冠疫情，你知道的，还是现在的关税问题，以及金融危机，你知道，每一个看起来像灾难的事件，都是部署资本的绝佳时机。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: um and I think one way to do it is just by buying market indices during periods of time but if you're an investor and you can do real work on companies if you can actually find the great businesses that get mispriced during that period you can make uh even more money

[译文] [比尔·阿克曼]: 我认为一种方法是在这些时期简单地购买市场指数，但如果你是一个投资者并且能够对公司进行真正的研究（real work），如果你能真正找到那些在那段时期被错误定价（mispriced）的伟大企业，你可以赚到更多的钱。

[原文] [Bill Ackman]: so yes uh you as an investor you should get excited anytime it gets exciting anytime it gets uncertain uh and the clouds come in the storm is going um that's when you want to uh you know have capital to invest

[译文] [比尔·阿克曼]: 所以，是的，作为一名投资者，任何时候只要情况变得跌宕起伏，任何时候出现不确定性，乌云密布，风暴来袭，你应该感到兴奋。那时候就是你想要，你知道的，拥有资本去投资的时候。

[原文] [Narrator]: in other words the scariest times are the best times to invest aman is saying that when uncertainty peaks during a pandemic a trade war or financial meltdown stocks get cheap and future returns get huge why because when everyone is afraid they sell stocks indiscriminately prices plunge well below fair value and if you wait for the fear to fade prices will have bounced back to normal

[译文] [旁白]: 换句话说，最可怕的时候就是最好的投资时候。阿克曼的意思是，在疫情、贸易战或金融崩溃期间，当不确定性达到顶峰时，股票就会变得便宜，而未来的回报则会变得巨大。为什么？因为当每个人都感到恐惧时，他们会不分青红皂白地抛售股票，价格暴跌至远低于公允价值（fair value）的水平。而如果你等到恐惧消退，价格就已经反弹回正常水平了。

[原文] [Narrator]: so he's telling us don't wait invest when the sky is darkest it's a bold claim but history backs him up consider this during the 2008 financial crisis the S&P 500 plunged about 50% over the next 18 months it soared roughly 150% the same thing happened in 2020 stocks fell 34% in the 2020 crash then shot up 60% within a year

[译文] [旁白]: 所以他告诉我们不要等，要在天空最黑暗的时候投资。这是一个大胆的声明，但历史支持了他的观点。想想看：在2008年金融危机期间，标普500指数（S&P 500）暴跌了约50%，但在接下来的18个月里，它飙升了大约150%。同样的事情发生在2020年，股票在2020年的崩盘中下跌了34%，然后在一年内暴涨了60%。

[原文] [Narrator]: if you'd bought at peak panic you could have doubled your money in a pretty short time crazy right it feels counterintuitive but that's exactly what Aman and other great investors do it's why Warren Buffett famously says "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

[译文] [旁白]: 如果你在极度恐慌的顶峰买入，你可以在很短的时间内让你的资金翻倍。很疯狂，对吧？这感觉有悖常理，但这正是阿克曼和其他伟大投资者所做的，这也是为什么沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）有一句名言：“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪。”

[原文] [Narrator]: When others ran from the market in 2020 Buffett and Aman were buying and Aman doesn't just talk the talk he literally made one of the greatest trades ever during a crisis in early 2020 when most investors panicked Aman placed a $27 million bet that the market would crash when the crash happened the bet paid off to the tune of $2.6 billion in a month yes billion with a B

[译文] [旁白]: 当其他人在2020年逃离市场时，巴菲特和阿克曼正在买入。而且阿克曼不只是纸上谈兵，他确确实实地在危机期间做出了史上最伟大的交易之一。在2020年初，当大多数投资者恐慌时，阿克曼押注了2700万美元做空市场，当崩盘发生时，这个押注在一个月内获得了26亿美元的回报，是的，是以B（Billion）开头的十亿。

[原文] [Narrator]: then with markets in freef fall he turned around and bought stocks on sale he poured a chunk of that windfall into blue chips like Hilton Hotels and Lowe's at fire sale prices in short he kept his cool had cash ready and scored a 100fold return when everyone else was in chaos

[译文] [旁白]: 接着，在市场自由落体式下跌时，他转过身来买入了打折的股票。他将一大部分这笔意外之财以跳楼价（fire sale prices）投入到希尔顿酒店（Hilton Hotels）和劳氏（Lowe's）等蓝筹股（blue chips）中。简而言之，当其他人陷入混乱时，他保持冷静，准备好现金，并获得了100倍的回报。

[原文] [Narrator]: so what's the lesson for us it means the next time the market is in full panic mode we should pay attention when fear spikes stocks go on clearance smart investors who prepare who have some cash on the sidelines and a shopping list of great companies can swoop in and buy at a discount

[译文] [旁白]: 那么我们能学到什么教训呢？这意味着下一次市场处于全面恐慌模式时，我们应该提高警惕。当恐惧激增时，股票就会进行清仓大甩卖（go on clearance）。那些做好准备、在场外留有部分现金（cash on the sidelines）、并拥有一份伟大公司购物清单的聪明投资者，就可以俯冲入场并以折扣价买入。

[原文] [Narrator]: the payoff for having courage in those moments can be enormous this is exactly how Aman suggests you could jump start your journey to $1 million instead of drip feeding money in calm times save up and strike when there's chaos in the streets

[译文] [旁白]: 在这些时刻拥有勇气的回报可能是巨大的。这正是阿克曼建议的、让你能够快速启动100万美元之旅的方式：不要在平静时期滴灌式地投入资金，而是存起钱来，在街头一片混乱时果断出击。

[原文] [Narrator]: now of course buying in a crisis is easier said than done it feels awful in the moment your hands are shaking everyone's yelling that the sky is falling but that's when valuations are at their most attractive that's when as Aman puts it the storm is going and you must have capital ready

[译文] [旁白]: 当然，在危机中买入说起来容易做起来难。在那一刻感觉糟透了，你的手在发抖，每个人都在大喊天要塌了，但那正是估值（valuations）最具吸引力的时候。那正是正如阿克曼所说，风暴来袭的时候，而且你必须准备好资本。

[原文] [Narrator]: if you can remember that when the time comes you'll be doing what 99% of investors can't and that's exactly how fortunes are made look identifying those unbreakable businesses with true moes the Amazons and Costos before they become obvious that's not easy it's exactly the kind of real work on companies Aman's talking about

[译文] [旁白]: 如果你能在那一刻到来时记住这一点，你就会做到99%的投资者做不到的事情，而这正是财富创造的方式。听着，在那些拥有真正护城河（moats）的坚不可摧的企业——比如亚马逊（Amazon）和好市多（Costco）——变得显而易见之前去识别出它们，这并不容易。这正是阿克曼所说的、对公司进行的“真正的研究工作（real work）”。

[原文] [Narrator]: that's why we created investor center research think of it as your crisis preparation kit every month we deliver institutional-grade research on one deeply undervalued high-quality business prepared by working investment professionals

[译文] [旁白]: 这就是为什么我们创建了投资者中心研究（Investor Center Research），你可以把它看作是你的危机应对准备包。每个月，我们都会发布一份由在职投资专业人士准备的、关于一家被严重低估的高质量企业的机构级（institutional-grade）研究报告。

[原文] [Narrator]: you'll see our full analysis valuation models and even watch our model portfolio in action for the next few days you can join at up to 35% off just hit the link below or scan the QR code don't wait for the next crash to start building your list of great companies now back to Acme

[译文] [旁白]: 你将看到我们完整的分析、估值模型（valuation models），甚至观看我们的模型投资组合的实际运作。在接下来的几天里，你可以享受高达35%的折扣加入我们，只需点击下方的链接或扫描二维码。不要等到下一次崩盘才开始建立你的伟大公司清单。现在让我们回到阿克曼（Aman）的话题。

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