Ray Dalio: 75 Years of Investing Wisdom in 39 Minutes (MUST WATCH)

章节 1：开场白与原则的价值

📝 本节摘要：

演讲者（Ray Dalio）在开场时强调了“原则”的核心价值。他认为掌握原则如同“授人以渔”，能够让人在不同时代和环境下独立应用这些规律。他分享了自己将决策标准系统化写下来的习惯，以此观察事物发展背后的因果关系并获得客观的洞察力。为了让听众不仅了解他的想法，还能理解其背后的运行机制，他将这些原则分为经济原则与投资原则进行深入探讨。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: if you know the principles it's like it's giving it like a giving a man the fish ability to fish rather than to just give the fish

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 如果你掌握了这些原则（principles），这就像是，就像是授人以渔（ability to fish），而不是仅仅授人以鱼。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I can tell you what I think but if these principles are right then you could apply them yourself to whatever time or circumstances exist

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我可以告诉你我是怎么想的，但如果这些原则是正确的，那么你就可以将它们自己应用到任何存在的时代或环境（circumstances）中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: As Sasha mentioned it's been 25 years that uh that we've been friends and professional colleagues

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正如萨沙（Sasha）所提到的，嗯，我们成为朋友和专业同行（professional colleagues）已经25年了。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so you know when I look in the room and I see these old friends I'm so happy to be here

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以你知道，当我环顾这个房间，看到这些老朋友时，我很高兴能来到这里。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: He also mentioned that I'm very systematic meaning I got in a habit of every time I would make a decision to write down the criteria I would use to make that decision

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 他也提到我非常系统化（systematic），这意味着我养成了一个习惯，每次我做决定时，都会写下我用来做那个决定的标准（criteria）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We're getting a little echo I think

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我想我们听到了一点回音。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And it's not a big room so I don't even even know if I need a mic

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而且这不是一个很大的房间，所以我甚至不知道我是否需要麦克风（mic）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So every time I would make a decision I would write down the criteria I used for making those decisions because cause effect everything happens because of a cause

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以每次我做决定时，我都会写下我用来做这些决定的标准，因为因果关系（cause effect），一切发生的事情都是因为某个原因。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so and the same things happen over and over again

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，同样的事情会一遍又一遍地发生。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so by taking the time to write them down and then seeing how those criteria would have worked over a period of time I could get perspective

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，通过花时间把它们写下来，然后观察这些标准在一段时间内是如何起作用的，我就能获得洞察力（perspective）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And so I wrote down those principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我写下了那些原则。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And as Hasha mentioned I wrote a book called principles which has to do which just was a collection of the life and work principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 正如哈沙（Hasha）提到的，我写了一本叫做《原则》的书，这仅仅是生活和工作原则的集合。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So the culture that we have is very very important

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我们拥有的文化非常非常重要。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: It was really the most important thing in terms of whatever success we've had

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 就我们取得的任何成功而言，它真的是最重要的事情。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: At the same time I wrote down uh the economic and investment principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 与此同时，我写下了，嗯，经济和投资原则。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So what I thought I would do today is to share with you what I think are my most important economic and investment principles and then look at the world through the perspective of those principles

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以我今天想做的是，与你们分享我认为最重要的经济和投资原则，然后通过这些原则的视角来看待这个世界。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: In other words rather than just tell you what I think I want to tell you how it works and then we can apply that mechanics

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 换句话说，与其仅仅告诉你我是怎么想的，我想告诉你它是如何运作的，然后我们可以应用这种机制（mechanics）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: You can decide does it work that way uh or not

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 你可以决定它是否是那样运作的，嗯，或者不是。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So are these principles uh valuable because if you know the principles it's like it's giving it like a giving man the fish ability to fish rather than to just give the fish

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 那么这些原则有价值吗？因为如果你掌握了这些原则，这就像是授人以渔，而不是仅仅授人以鱼。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I can tell you what I think but if these principles are right then you could apply them yourself to whatever time or circumstances exist

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我可以告诉你我是怎么想的，但如果这些原则是正确的，那么你就可以将它们自己应用到任何存在的时代或环境中。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: I broke it down in terms of economic principles and investment principles because the markets follow the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我把它分为了经济原则和投资原则，因为市场是跟随经济的。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So in order to understand economics in all the markets you have to understand in order to understand the markets you have to understand the economy

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此，为了理解所有市场中的经济学，你必须理解……为了理解市场，你必须理解经济（economy）。