Volatility Signals: AI Boom or Bust? | ITK With Cathie Wood

章节 1：市场波动与人工智能的巨大机遇

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 开篇指出，近期市场的剧烈波动主要由算法交易（Algorithmic Trading）引发，而非基本面恶化。她重申人工智能是“毕生最大的机遇”，并将当前环境与互联网泡沫时期进行对比：当下的科技巨头（Mag 6）增加资本支出是为了抓住巨大的 AI 机会，这与当年的盲目烧钱截然不同。此外，她提到软件行业正从 SaaS（软件即服务）向 PaaS（平台即服务）转型，虽然市场对此反应过度（“把婴儿连同洗澡水一起倒掉”），但这反而为 ARK 集中投资高确信度标的提供了良机。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Anyone who sold regretted it. Most of this volatility is algorithmically generated. Algorithms are not doing the research that we're doing because this is the biggest opportunity of our lifetime.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 任何（在波动中）卖出的人都后悔了。大部分这种波动都是由算法生成的。算法并没有做我们正在做的研究，因为这是我们毕生最大的机遇。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Greetings everyone, uh, my name is Kathy Wood, CEO and CIO of Arc Invest. Uh, this is employment Friday, sort of. Uh, the employment report did not come out, uh, today; it came out on Wednesday. Uh, but nonetheless, Friday seems to be a good time, uh, to do this video.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 大家好，我是 ARK Invest 的 CEO 兼 CIO Cathie Wood。今天是“就业周五”，某种程度上算是吧。就业报告并没有在今天发布，它是在周三发布的。不过尽管如此，周五似乎还是录制这个视频的好时机。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So as usual we'll go through fiscal policy, monetary policy, economics, market indicators. Uh, I'll just start with, uh, a few comments about, about the environment, uh, which has been extremely volatile recently.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 照例，我们将梳理财政政策、货币政策、经济状况和市场指标。我想先对当前的市场环境做一些评论，最近市场波动极其剧烈。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: I think, um, you know we've been talking about AI since ARC was founded in 2014. We've been all over it; that's when we took our first NVIDIA position. And so, um, we've been doing a lot of research and we've, um, I think been, uh, doing very well in terms of understanding how this environment is going to evolve.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我想，大家都知道自 ARK 于 2014 年成立以来，我们就一直在谈论人工智能。我们一直全身心投入其中；也就是在那时我们建立了第一个英伟达（NVIDIA）仓位。所以，我们做了大量的研究，而且我认为，在理解环境将如何演变方面，我们要做得非常好。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: In the last In The Know, which was an interim one, I described how we did anticipate a shift in terms of incremental share away from SAS as platform as a service, um, basically usurp the role of SAS and really helped customize for each company, uh, their own platform insteading, instead of using a one-size-fits-all.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在上一期临时的《In The Know》视频中，我描述了我们要如何预判了增量市场份额的转移：即从 SaaS（软件即服务）转向 PaaS（平台即服务）。PaaS 基本上篡夺了 SaaS 的角色，真正帮助每家公司定制自己的平台，而不是使用“一刀切”的方案。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So that wasn't surprising, but as usual, uh, the market throws the baby out with the bathwater, or maybe it's the investors, uh, or the speculators. And so, uh, as usual, we, uh, uh, consolidate our positions to our higher conviction names.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 所以这并不令人意外，但也像往常一样，市场把婴儿连同洗澡水一起倒掉了，或者说是投资者，亦或是投机者干的。因此，我们也像往常一样，将仓位集中到我们要确信度最高的股票上。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: But you know most of this volatility is algorithmically generated. Algorithms are not doing the research that we're doing, uh, and so that is why we concentrate towards our highest conviction names. The market gives us that opportunity.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但你知道，大部分这种波动都是由算法生成的。算法并没有做我们要正在做的研究，这也是为什么我们要向最高确信度的股票集中。市场给了我们要这个机会。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: So that's been, uh, a, those are our comments around the volatility. Um, and you'll remember last April during tariff turmoil, I was on here saying look, we think this is temporary, what's going on in the market. Remember there was a sharp decline and a lot of people were freaked out.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这就是我们要关于波动的评论。你们可能还记得去年四月关税风波期间，我在这里说过：看，我们要认为这只是暂时的，市场正在发生的事情是暂时的。记得当时有一次急剧下跌，很多人都吓坏了。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Even the, even investors who typically are very calm and, and, and used to volatility, uh, they were shaken last year. Anyone who sold during that moment of drama, uh, regretted it for the rest of the year. The market has been up very strongly since.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 甚至那些通常非常冷静、习惯了波动的投资者，去年也被动摇了。任何在那一戏剧性时刻卖出的人，那一整年剩下的时间里都后悔了。自那以后，市场上涨得非常强劲。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: This market is climbing a wall of worry. Uh, those are the strongest bull markets. The volatility does shake, uh, people up, but frankly this is so much healthier an environment than what we experienced during the tech and telecom bubble.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这个市场正在攀越“忧虑之墙”（Wall of Worry）。这往往是最强劲的牛市特征。波动确实会动摇人心，但坦率地说，现在的环境比我们在科技和电信泡沫时期经历的要健康得多。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: During that market, uh, you know Jeff Bezos could come out and say, uh, you know we're going to lose so much more money because we're investing aggressively, this internet opportunity is as vast a, and even vaster than we imagined, and the market would go, go up and, and take Amazon up 10, 15%.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 在那个（泡沫）市场里，杰夫·贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）可以出来说，我们要会亏损更多的钱，因为我们要正在积极投资，这个互联网机会巨大，甚至比我们要想象的还要巨大，然后市场就会上涨，把亚马逊推高 10% 到 15%。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, that would not happen today. Quite the opposite. As the mag six, uh, companies are basically saying you know we're going to spend more money, uh, you're used to our free cash flow dynamics and they've only been moving, uh, one way for the last five years or so, uh, that's going to change.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 这种事在今天不会发生了。恰恰相反。当那六大科技巨头（Mag 6）基本上在说“我们要打算花更多的钱”时——你们习惯了我们的自由现金流动态，在过去五年左右的时间里它们只朝一个方向（增长）移动——那是会改变的。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: And we're seeing, uh, some of the more traditional investors who, uh, do focus mostly on free cash flow and free cash, uh, um, flow margins, um, a little unsettled and taking, uh, their position sizes down.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们看到一些更传统的投资者，那些主要关注自由现金流和自由现金流利润率的人，感到有些不安，并正在减仓。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, we don't think that is necessarily a good idea. We think that Google and Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, um, should be spending aggressively because this is the biggest opportunity of our lifetime.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们认为这未必是个好主意。我们要认为 Google、Meta、Microsoft 和 Amazon 应该积极支出，因为这是我们要毕生最大的机遇。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: The question is, um, as we, as we evolve towards agentic AI and, uh, and chat bots, is this going to take time away from traditional social media? Are we going to, uh, from a shopping point of view, have our agents do all the work and do it around the internet? So maybe Amazon doesn't get cut in as much as it has been recently.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 问题在于，随着我们要向代理型人工智能（Agentic AI）和聊天机器人演进，这是否会从传统社交媒体那里抢走时间？从购物的角度来看，我们要是否会让我们的代理（Agents）在互联网上完成所有工作？所以也许亚马逊分到的蛋糕不会像最近那么多。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, we, we will see, uh, and we'll certainly be paying a lot of attention to share gains and incremental share gains, which is what we got right around the SAS call.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们拭目以待，我们肯定会密切关注市场份额的增长和增量份额的获取，这正是我们要在 SaaS 预测上做对的地方。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Um, all right. So, uh, I think, uh, we'll start with the charts. Uh, I just would like to characterize this environment much like, uh, I did for macro reasons, uh, the, the trade turmoil environment. It is presenting great opportunities and, uh, we definitely lean into the volatility as I just mentioned.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 好了。我想我们要开始看图表了。我想把现在的环境描述得像我因宏观原因描述贸易动荡环境时那样。它正在呈现巨大的机会，正如我刚才提到的，我们绝对会利用这种波动性。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: Uh, and, and our longer term performance is really made with these decisions. So, uh, let's go into the charts here we go.

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 而且，我们的长期业绩确实是由这些决定造就的。所以，让我们进入图表部分吧。