Cathie Wood On Bitcoin Volatility And SaaSpocalypse Fears

章节 1：开篇与AI技术栈的演变（SaaS的衰退与PaaS的崛起）

📝 本节摘要：

Cathie Wood 首先奠定了本次分享的背景，旨在回应近期市场因“AI炒作”、“加密货币崩盘”及宏观经济变量而产生的恐慌情绪。在详细拆解AI技术栈时，她指出“平台即服务”（PaaS）层（以Palantir为例）正成为最大的赢家，录得惊人的增长；相反，“软件即服务”（SaaS）层则成为AI革命的受害者，预计未来将面临显著的市场份额流失与行业整合。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: greetings everyone this is kathy wood ceo and cio of arc invest it is employment friday uh but there's no employment report uh we will have that next week but given all of the fireworks uh in the market and all the drama recently uh i felt it was important uh to to do in the no or at least on the in the know part one today just to address uh the the three topics that we think have really unnerved the markets ai hype crypto meltdown and macro macro statistics but more macro um variables like fedspeak

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 大家好，我是ARK Invest的CEO兼CIO Cathie Wood。今天是“就业周五”，但没有发布就业报告，我们要到下周才能看到。鉴于市场上所有的动荡和最近发生的种种戏剧性事件，我觉得今天有必要做一期“In the Know”（或者至少是第一部分），专门回应一下我们要讨论的三个话题，我认为这三个话题确实让市场感到不安：AI炒作、加密货币崩盘以及宏观统计数据，或者更确切地说是宏观变量，比如美联储官员的讲话。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh so let's go through each one of those uh and we'll start with the uh ai hype so you can see from this first chart here uh what our predictions in december of 2024 were for really the tech stack uh as ai uh was evolving uh and you can see here that we saw rapid growth in all three areas of the tech stack so the infrastructure layer the platform layer and the application layer uh that was true uh in the four years ended or five years ended 24 and our expectations uh for the next five to si x years

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 那么让我们逐一过一遍，首先从“AI炒作”开始。大家可以从这第一张图表中看到，我们在2024年12月对随着AI发展而演进的技术栈所做的预测。你们可以看到，我们观察到技术栈的所有三个领域都出现了快速增长：基础设施层、平台层和应用层。这在截至24年的过去四年或五年中是事实，也是我们对未来五到六年的预期。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: now what we also pointed out below is that there were share shifts taking place place in terms of incremental growth among these three uh and you can see that the big winner was platform as a service think palunteer one of uh the most important companies in this ai revolution uh and its growth rate us commercial alone uh last quarter was 142% in revenue growth uh no other software company is coming close to that at least in the public equity markets

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 我们在下面还指出了一点，就是这三个领域在增量增长方面正在发生份额转移。大家可以看到最大的赢家是“平台即服务”（Platform as a Service），比如Palantir，它是这场AI革命中最重要的公司之一。它上个季度仅在美国商业领域的营收增长率就达到了142%。至少在公开股票市场上，没有其他软件公司能接近这个数字。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: in the in the private markets of course uh you've got the frontier model players um running away with 250 to 850% growth rates uh think open ai and and anthropic in the last year year and a half annualized um you can see the big loser we thought was going to be the application layer uh largely software as a service

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 当然在私募市场上，那些前沿模型参与者正以250%到850%的增长率绝尘而去，比如OpenAI和Anthropic在过去一年或一年半的年化增长率。你们可以看到，我们认为最大的输家将是应用层，主要是“软件即服务”（SaaS）。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh now if there's something wrong with this chart uh you can see it is in our projection for software as a service going forward on the top there uh 20% plus uh it's not going to be anything like that in fact uh we do bel ieve that software as a service is becoming a victim of this ai revolution there will be uh consolidators uh and and software as a service providers who do survive this route they will consolidate the market

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 如果说这张图表有什么问题的话，那就是我们在顶部对“软件即服务”未来的预测——20%以上。实际上根本不会是那样。事实上，我们要相信“软件即服务”正成为这场AI革命的受害者。市场上会出现整合者，那些能在这次溃败中幸存下来的“软件即服务”提供商将整合这个市场。

[原文] [Cathie Wood]: uh but we we underestimated ourselves we were saying they that sas was going to lose share we didn't realize how much how soon and that g gives you a sense of uh how quickly uh this revolution is happening uh 142% for palunteer uh uh us commercial in one quarter uh we didn't expect that either in fact our kagger our compound annual rate of uh revenue growth assumption which we thought was enormous at the time for the next five years for palunteer itself uh is 55% that could be wrong too maybe it's too low uh so here we are

[译文] [Cathie Wood]: 但我们也低估了自己的判断。我们曾说过SaaS会失去份额，但我们没意识到会失去得这么多、这么快。这让你能感觉到这场革命发生得有多快。Palantir在美国商业领域单季度增长142%，这也是我们没预料到的。事实上，我们对Palantir未来五年的复合年均营收增长率（CAGR）假设是55%，当时我们觉得这个数字已经很大了，但这也可能是错的，也许太低了。所以这就是现在的状况。