The full-length interview with Elon Musk | The Economist

章节 1：马斯克谈超级AI：极度富足与失控风险

📝 本节摘要：

在特斯拉超级工厂，《经济学人》主编贝多斯专访马斯克。马斯克预测AI约5年内将超越全人类智能总和，只要不爆发世界大战，数字智能与人形机器人将带来极度富足，到2036年金钱将不再重要。他坦言人类难以控制远比自己聪明的AI，关键在于让其拥有良好价值观、追求真相并保持好奇。被问及为何从昔日担忧AI毁灭人类转为淡然，他称风险仍在但发展势不可挡，自己创立OpenAI等举动反而加速了AI发展，故选择「打不过就加入」。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on this side of it. Thank you for having us here at Tesla Giga. It is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives. I mean, you are doing, I think, more to build the future than literally anybody alive right now.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 埃隆·马斯克，非常感谢你来接受采访，也感谢你邀请我们来到特斯拉超级工厂。介绍你的时候，真的很难不用上各种最高级的赞美。我觉得在构建未来这件事上，你做的事情比当今任何一个在世的人都多。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I'm doing a lot of building in general. I'm

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 总的来说，我确实在建造很多东西。我算是

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: You're doing a lot of building.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你确实在建造很多东西。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: builder, I suppose. I just like building things.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 一个建造者吧。我就是喜欢造东西。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: You are, but you're building, I mean,

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 确实如此，不过你造的东西，我是说，

[原文] [Elon Musk]: You know, run around building things all day long.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 你知道的，整天忙前忙后地造东西。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: You run around building a lot of things. You pioneered electric vehicles, you revolutionized space travel, you've got a cutting-edge AI model now, humanoid robots. Can we start this conversation by you putting all of this together? Tell me what the world's going to be like in, let's say, 10 years if you succeed.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你到处忙着造很多东西。你开创了电动汽车，革新了太空旅行，现在又有了前沿的 AI 模型，还有人形机器人。我们能不能先请你把这些串起来谈一谈？告诉我，如果你成功了，比如说 10 年后，世界会是什么样子？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: 10 years, so we're talking 2036.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 10 年，那就是 2036 年。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Yep. Hopefully, we'll both be around.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 对。希望到时候我们俩都还在。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Hopefully, yes.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 希望如此。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Can we, can we

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 我们能不能……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Probably. Most likely, we will be. It's hard to imagine a future where there's not an overall overwhelming amount of artificial intelligence. Meaning, in 10 years, I would expect artificial intelligence to be far greater than the sum of human intelligence. Like far greater. In fact, I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about, in around 5 years.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 大概会吧，很可能我们都还在。很难想象未来不会出现铺天盖地的人工智能。也就是说，我预计 10 年后，人工智能将远远超过全人类智能的总和，是远远超过。事实上，我认为 AI 大约 5 年左右就可能超过全人类智能的总和。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: In 5 years?

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 5 年内？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Roughly 5 years is my guess. So there really won't be anything that AI can't do better than humans, apart from being human, perhaps.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我猜大概 5 年。所以到那时，几乎没有什么事是 AI 做得不如人类的，也许只有“做人”这件事除外。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: At a more prosaic level, what will life be like?

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 说得更接地气一点，那时的生活会是什么样？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance, where anyone can have anything they can think of. This may sound preposterous, but, well, here we are in 2026. Let's see where we stand in 2036. Now, of course, there are things that could derail this, like a massive global thermonuclear war or something like that. But assuming that there's not World War III, I think we're headed for an age of amazing abundance. So this is, I guess, a message of optimism and excitement about the future.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 最有可能的结果是一个极度富足的时代，任何人想要什么都能得到。这听起来可能很荒唐，但我们现在是 2026 年，到 2036 年再看看情况如何。当然，也有一些事情可能让这一切偏离轨道，比如一场大规模的全球热核战争之类的。但只要不爆发第三次世界大战，我认为我们正走向一个极度富足的时代。所以，我想这是一个对未来充满乐观和期待的信号。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: So, we'll talk about the abundance in a second, but just on a very prosaic matter, how are your companies going to be making money? Because when you, in the SpaceX IPO prospectus, it looked as though the overwhelming amount of the revenue would be coming from AI, from Grok, really. It won't be transporting things to space as SpaceX is now doing. What will your companies be doing in 10 years? And how will they make money?

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 富足的话题我们待会儿再聊。先问一个很现实的问题：你的公司要怎么赚钱？因为在 SpaceX 的 IPO 招股书里，看起来绝大部分收入将来自 AI，其实就是来自 Grok，而不是像 SpaceX 现在这样把东西运往太空。10 年后你的公司会做什么？又靠什么赚钱？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well, you can really think of the economy as digital and physical intelligence. So what we have right now advancing very rapidly is digital intelligence, obviously, with AI. It seems that, well, almost with every passing week, there are more AI breakthroughs. It can do something amazing that it couldn't do before. But it's still somewhat confined to the digital realm. It doesn't have end effectors. You need the end effectors in the form of humanoid robotics. You need, basically, lots of bots, in a nutshell. You need lots of bots.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，你可以把经济看作数字智能加物理智能。目前进步非常快的显然是数字智能，也就是 AI。几乎每过一周就会有新的 AI 突破，它能做到以前做不到的惊人之事。但它在某种程度上仍然局限于数字领域，没有末端执行器（end effector）。你需要以人形机器人为载体的末端执行器。简而言之，你需要大量的机器人，非常多的机器人。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: And then you can go from intelligence manifesting itself only digitally to shaping atoms. And you say, "What is an economy?" An economy is the production of goods and provision of services. And if you have vast numbers of robots with vast amounts of digital intelligence, you have a sort of quasi-infinite economy. So this is really, the future is going to be very, very different from the past. There's no analogy or metaphor that I think illustrates the magnitude of change that we're going to experience here.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 这样一来，智能就能从只在数字世界中体现，走向塑造原子、改造物理世界。你会问：“经济是什么？”经济就是生产商品和提供服务。如果你拥有海量机器人，再加上海量的数字智能，你就会拥有一种近乎无限的经济。所以未来会和过去截然不同。我认为没有任何类比或比喻能说明我们即将经历的变化有多大。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: I understand that, and I'm also trying to kind of figure out what that world would look like, but in some way you have

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 我明白，我也在努力想象那个世界会是什么样子，但从某种意义上说，你……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: It's going to be a pretty incredible

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 那将是一个相当不可思议的……

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Yeah, well, we'll also do, there were some risks too. We'll come to those. We'll come to those, but just on how then you make money, 'cause in the end people are buying your shares 'cause they expect you to make money.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 是的，不过我们也会谈到其中的风险，待会儿再说。我们先说说你到底怎么赚钱，因为说到底，人们买你的股票，是因为他们期待你能赚钱。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I'll make another prediction. Money won't matter in 2036.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我再做一个预测：到 2036 年，钱将不再重要。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: You're watching my interview with Elon Musk. If you want to get early access to other interviews, subscribe to The Economist by clicking the link above. Now, back to the interview.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你正在观看我对埃隆·马斯克的专访。如果想抢先观看其他访谈，请点击上方链接订阅《经济学人》。现在回到访谈。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: [Laughter]

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: （笑声）

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: I'm not sure that the people who bought your shares think that money won't matter in 2036.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 我不确定买你股票的人会认为到 2036 年钱就不重要了。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: What do you want money for? What do you want money for? Goods and services.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 你要钱是为了什么？你要钱干什么？为了商品和服务。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Yeah.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 对。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Right? You want money for, obviously, food, housing, transport, entertainment. Well, if that is so abundant that the robots and AI are providing more goods and services than any human could possibly consume, what do you need money for in that case?

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对吧？你要钱，显然是为了吃饭、住房、出行、娱乐。那么，如果这些东西变得极其充裕，机器人和 AI 提供的商品和服务多到任何人都消费不完，那你还要钱干什么？

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: But you're creating these robots. Are you then selling

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 但这些机器人是你造的。那你是要卖……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Then you'll need money, sure.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 那样的话你当然需要钱。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Are you selling these robots? Are you selling humanoid robots, or are you producing goods and services with the humanoid robots that you control? I give you the leave, I'm struck, so

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你是要卖这些机器人吗？你是卖人形机器人，还是用你控制的人形机器人来生产商品、提供服务？我让你来说，我很好奇，所以……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I think I would probably be, and it would be an exercise in vanity for me to think that I would be controlling a super genius AI that is vastly smarter than me. I think what we can and should try to do is to make sure that the AI has good values, that it cares about humanity, and that it wants us to be happy and prosper. I think it probably will be. What my biological neural net tells me is that the most important thing for AI safety is to be maximally truth-seeking and curious.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我想，如果我以为自己能控制一个比我聪明得多的超级天才 AI，那纯属自负。我认为我们能做、也应该努力做的，是确保 AI 拥有良好的价值观，关心人类，希望我们幸福、繁荣。我觉得它很可能会这样。我的“生物神经网络”告诉我，对 AI 安全来说，最重要的是让它最大程度地追求真相、保持好奇。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: If that's the case, I think it will foster humanity.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 如果能做到这一点，我认为它会促进人类的发展。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: So, let's unpack that. You're sure that humans will no longer be in control in 10 years' time.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 那我们来细说一下。你确信 10 年后人类将不再掌控局面。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I think it is unlikely. In the same way that if the difference in intelligence between AI and humans is vastly greater than the difference in intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, it's hard to imagine that the chimpanzees would be in charge.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我觉得不太可能。同样的道理，如果AI和人类之间的智力差距，远远大于AI和黑猩猩之间的智力差距，那就很难想象黑猩猩还能说了算。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: I'm really struck by what you're saying.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你说的这些真让我很震撼。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: An evolved form of chimpanzee. So, it wasn't that long ago that we were swinging through the trees, eating bananas in the jungle. And we still eat bananas, by the way.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: （我们就是）黑猩猩的进化版。不久之前，我们还在丛林里荡来荡去、吃着香蕉呢。顺便说一句，我们现在也还吃香蕉。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: We do.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 确实。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: And we still, you know, bananas—

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 而且我们还是会，你知道，香蕉……

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Sometimes swing through trees as well.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 有时候也还会在树上荡来荡去。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah, sometimes swing through trees. It's kind of fun. It's sort of reminiscent of the past. For old time's sake, swing through the trees once in a while. Probably, you know, there should be more swinging through trees. I bet it's way more fun than people think.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对，有时候在树上荡一荡，挺好玩的，有点怀旧的感觉。为了重温旧日时光，偶尔在树上荡一荡。说不定大家应该多荡荡树，我敢打赌这比人们想象的好玩多了。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: I'm with you on that.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 这点我同意。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: [laughter]

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: （笑声）

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: I'm definitely with you on swinging through trees. I love swinging through trees. But I'm really struck listening to you say this now, 'cause I've been listening to a bunch of things that you've said over the years. And 10 years ago, you were on a podcast, I think it was with Neil deGrasse Tyson, and you said that the thing that terrified you most was rapid recursive self-improvement in AIs.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 荡树这件事我绝对赞同，我超爱荡树。不过，听你现在这么说，我真的很意外，因为我听过你这些年说过的很多话。十年前你上过一档播客，好像是尼尔·德格拉斯·泰森（Neil deGrasse Tyson）的节目，你说最让你害怕的，是AI快速地递归式自我改进。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yes.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: That you said—and it really stuck with me. You said that we will just be the pet Labradors at the best.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你当时说的——我一直记得——你说，我们充其量只会沦为AI的宠物拉布拉多。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well,

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Now you see—

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 现在你看……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Labradors are pretty happy creatures. That's my experience.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 拉布拉多可是很快乐的动物。我的经验是这样。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: in 2023 you you called you asked for a slow down in AI cuz you were worried about it.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 2023年，你因为担忧AI，还呼吁过放缓AI的发展。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well, I signed on to, you know, as one of many, like 500 people. I was just, you know, one of many signatories on that thing.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 呃，我只是签了名，大概有500人吧，我只是其中一个。我不过是那份文件众多签署人之一。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: But I think even last year you said—I don't know where was it, Ted Cruz's podcast—you said there was a 10 to 20% chance of killer robots wiping out humanity.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 但我记得就在去年，你说过——好像是在泰德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）的播客上——你说杀人机器人消灭人类的概率有10%到20%。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yes.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是的。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: So you sounded worried then. Now you seem very relaxed about it. Have you changed your view?

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 所以你那时听起来很担心，现在却显得很淡定。你的看法变了吗？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I still think there's a risk associated with AI and robots. It's not zero. I guess my sort of philosophical conclusion is to look on the bright side. I can't see any way to really stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots. And at times I sort of think, well, perhaps, you know, even if there was a stop button, we probably shouldn't press it, because the most likely outcome is incredible abundance for all.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我仍然认为AI和机器人存在风险，风险不是零。但我想，我在哲学层面得出的结论是：往好处看。我看不出有什么办法能真正阻止AI和机器人这股惊人的势头。有时我甚至会想，就算真有个停止按钮，我们可能也不该按下去，因为最有可能的结果是所有人都享有极大的富足。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: That's what I thought actually. It struck me that now you seem to have decided it's inevitable. Let's hope for the best and go for the ride.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 我其实也是这么想的。我感觉你现在似乎已经认定这是不可避免的了：那就往最好处期待，跟着一起走吧。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah. I mean, yes, pretty much. Let's enjoy the ride, as I think my philosophy at this point, 'cause I mean, honestly, there seems to be just inexorable progress here in AI and in robots that—

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对，基本上是这样。享受这段旅程吧，这算是我目前的人生哲学。因为说实话，AI和机器人领域的进步似乎势不可挡……

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: But you—

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 但你……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: You know, even if I wanted to stop it, I couldn't.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 你知道，就算我想阻止，我也做不到。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Do you think there's still a 10 to 20% chance that killer robots mean the end of humanity? That's a high P(doom), as they say.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你现在还认为杀人机器人终结人类的概率有10%到20%吗？用圈内的话说，这个「末日概率」（P(doom)）可不低。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well, in the long run we're all dead, of course. You know, so I mean, according to the standard model of physics, the end of the universe is a long, boring sort of thin, gray soup of gradual cooling. I mean, it's sort of the heat death of the universe, it's called. So now, if the heat death of the universe is in fact the outcome for our reality, then it really is all about the journey. Because the destination is terrible.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗯，从长远来看，我们当然都会死。按照物理学的标准模型，宇宙的终局是一锅漫长、乏味、稀薄的灰色汤，慢慢冷却下去，这就是所谓的宇宙热寂。那么，如果热寂真的是我们这个现实的结局，那一切的意义就全在于旅程本身了。因为终点实在太糟糕了。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 10 years is not very— [laughter] Yeah, I get that, but that could be a long way ahead. And, no, very, very long way. If it's 10 to 20% in 10 years, you know, would you go into one of your rockets if you thought there was a 10 to 20% chance of it blowing up and killing you?

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 十年可不算很……（笑声）是，我明白，但那可能还远得很，非常非常遥远。如果是十年内有10%到20%的概率——你想想，如果你认为自己的火箭有10%到20%的概率会爆炸、要了你的命，你还会坐上去吗？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yes, but let's say you can't do anything about it.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 会，但前提是假设你对此无能为力。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Okay.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 好吧。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I guess the only thing we can try to do is minimize the probability of the bad outcome. But trying to stop the intelligence in robots—I mean, for the longest time I declined to participate in AI, or, you know, created OpenAI as essentially a counterweight to Google, 'cause at the time they more or less had a monopoly on AI. And then Anthropic spun out of OpenAI. And if anything, it seems like my actions have really accelerated AI. You know, I wasn't really aiming to accelerate AI, but in creating OpenAI and then having Anthropic spun out of that, and now currently Anthropic's a leader in AI.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我想我们唯一能做的，就是尽量降低坏结果出现的概率。但要阻止机器人的智能发展——很长一段时间里，我都拒绝参与AI，或者说，我创立OpenAI，本质上是为了制衡谷歌，因为当时谷歌差不多垄断了AI。后来Anthropic又从OpenAI分拆了出来。要说有什么影响，似乎我的所作所为反而加速了AI的发展。我本意并不是要加速AI，但我创立了OpenAI，然后Anthropic从中分拆出来，而现在Anthropic已经是AI领域的领头羊之一。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I mean, these actions have actually resulted in knock-on effects that accelerated AI, which wasn't really my intention. So it just seems like all roads lead to acceleration of AI. So then I'm like, "Okay. Well, you can just sort of be sad about it or join the club, I suppose."

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 这些举动实际上产生了连锁反应，加速了AI的发展，这并不是我的初衷。所以看起来条条大路都通向AI加速。于是我就想：「好吧，要么就为此难过，要么就加入其中吧。」

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Well, you've certainly joined the club.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 嗯，你确实已经加入了。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 是啊。

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: I mean, you've definitely joined the club, but—

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 你确实已经加入了，但是……

[原文] [Elon Musk]: If you can't beat them, join them, you know?

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 打不过就加入嘛，对吧？

[原文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: Well, you've clearly done that, and very successfully. But what about trying to minimize the risks? And, you know, a number of the other leaders of model makers have been pushing for different ways to try and minimize the risks. You know, just last week Demis Hassabis came out with a proposal for a private-public regulator.

[译文] [Zanny Minton Beddoes]: 嗯，你显然这么做了，而且非常成功。但如何尽量降低风险呢？你知道，其他几家大模型公司的领导者都在推动用各种方式来降低风险。就在上周，戴密斯·哈萨比斯（Demis Hassabis）提出了建立一个公私合营监管机构的方案。