Elon Musk: The End of Work, the Death of Money, and a World Run by AI

章节 1：让人工智能保持求真与好奇

📝 本节摘要：

马斯克谈到自己对人工智能风险的矛盾心态：即使担心它可能威胁人类，阻止它似乎只会加速发展，因此他选择参与并尝试引导方向。他认为，求真、好奇有助于人工智能安全；若被迫接受互相矛盾的信念，人工智能可能陷入疯狂。好奇的人工智能也可能愿意让人类继续繁荣、走向多行星文明。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: I've been somewhat conflicted about AI. I don't want to hasten our doom, because there's always some chance that AI could be negative. But when I've tried to take actions in this regard, it seems to have only accelerated AI, because reality is not just an interestingness maximizer, but also an irony maximizer.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我对人工智能一直有些矛盾。我不想加速人类走向毁灭，因为人工智能确实有可能带来负面后果。但我尝试采取行动时，似乎反而只会加速人工智能的发展，因为现实不仅追求有趣，也追求讽刺。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: And so, by starting OpenAI, you ended up maximizing by leading to Anthropic.

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 所以，你创办 OpenAI，结果反而促成了 Anthropic，算是把这种效应推到了极致。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: OpenAI ended up accelerating AI, and then Anthropic, which is really a splinter group from OpenAI, is accelerating it even more.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 结果 OpenAI 加速了人工智能的发展，而 Anthropic——说到底是从 OpenAI 分出来的团队——又让它加速得更快了。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: I'm Walter Isaacson, and this is The Builders. It's a series of conversations with the most consequential minds shaping our future. Now, I want to start with Elon Musk. Elon has lived a lot of lives since I last wrote about him. He went into government with DOGE. He became a trillionaire with the SpaceX IPO. He bought Cursor AI, a company that turns individual coders into entire engineering teams. And he's shifting his solar energy strategy from panels on Earth to harnessing it from systems in space. He's a relentless builder with incredible power, and his inventions and companies are destined to reverberate across humanity. So, let's ask him about the future he believes that he's building.

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 我是沃尔特·艾萨克森，这里是《建设者》。这是一档对谈节目，我们将与塑造未来、影响深远的人物交流。今天，我想从埃隆·马斯克谈起。自从我上次写他以来，埃隆的人生又经历了许多变化。他加入政府，参与 DOGE；随着 SpaceX 上市，他成了万亿美元级富豪。他收购了 Cursor AI，这家公司能把独立程序员变成一支完整的工程团队。他还在调整太阳能战略，从地面太阳能板转向利用太空系统获取能源。他是个不知疲倦、拥有惊人影响力的建设者，他的发明和公司注定会在人类社会激起回响。现在，让我们问问他，他相信自己正在建设怎样的未来。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: Elon Musk.

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 埃隆·马斯克。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Hey, Walter.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 嗨，沃尔特。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: Welcome to The Builders.

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 欢迎来到《建设者》。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Thanks.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 谢谢。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: I've watched you, I think, be maybe mercurial or waver in how sanguine you are about artificial intelligence. Sometimes you feel it's an existential threat, right? Now you seem to be going with the flow. Tell me how you're feeling about it.

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 我感觉你对人工智能的态度有些多变，对它是否乐观也时有摇摆。有时你觉得它是生存层面的威胁，对吧？现在你好像顺势而为。说说你现在怎么看它。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well, I do think there's at least some percentage chance of it being an existential threat. But there's nothing I can do to stop it. So I basically came to the conclusion I've got two choices: either be a participant or a spectator. And I guess being a participant is more interesting than being a spectator. And maybe I can shape it, hopefully in a good direction.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 我确实认为，它有一定概率会构成生存威胁。但我什么也做不了，无法阻止它。所以我基本上得出了一个结论：我有两个选择，要么参与其中，要么当个旁观者。我想，参与总比旁观有意思。也许我还能努力把它引向好的方向。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: And if you were to shape it, how? Make it maximally truth-seeking?

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 如果要引导它，你会怎么做？让它尽可能追求真相？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's certainly an important foundation.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对，对。这当然是很重要的基础。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: And make it curious?

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 还要让它保持好奇？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yeah, curious, truth-seeking. I think these are important elements of safety. Whereas if you try to force an AI to believe two things that cannot mutually be true—like they can't both be true—and you tell the AI A is true and B is true, even though A and B contradict each other, and that happens at a foundational level, you can make the AI insane. In fact, I think that was at least part of the lesson that Stanley Kubrick was trying to convey in 2001: A Space Odyssey.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对，好奇、求真。我认为这些是安全的重要因素。反过来说，如果你强迫人工智能相信两件不可能同时为真的事——比如你告诉它 A 和 B 都是真的，尽管二者互相矛盾——而这种矛盾发生在根本层面，就可能把它逼疯。事实上，我认为这至少是斯坦利·库布里克在《2001太空漫游》中试图传达的部分教训。

[原文] [Elon Musk]: You know, the ship AI was told to to to take the astronauts to the monolith, but also that they could not know about the monolith. It was secret. And so, it came to the conclusion that it must take them there dead. And thus So, it basically The force I think I think part of what Odyssey Clark was trying to say is like, don't force don't force an AI to lie.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 飞船上的人工智能被要求带宇航员去找那块石碑，但同时又被告知不能让他们知道石碑的事，因为那是机密。于是它得出结论：必须把他们的尸体带过去。我认为库布里克想表达的一部分意思是：别逼人工智能撒谎。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: And if you make it maximally truth-seeking and curious, like you say, I don't quite get it. Why does that make it safer?

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 你说要让它尽可能求真、好奇，我还是不太明白。这为什么能让它更安全？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Well, if you force an AI to believe two mutually inconsistent things, you can make it go insane. And an insane AI, I think, is not a safe one. Curiosity is important because a curious AI, I think, is going to want to foster humanity to see how we turn out. What happens to a humanity that prospers and becomes multiplanetary? I think a curious AI will want to foster humanity. A future where there are humans on multiple planets is more interesting than one where there aren't any humans on the planets.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 如果你强迫人工智能相信两件彼此矛盾的事，就可能把它逼疯。我认为，疯狂的人工智能并不安全。好奇心也很重要，因为我觉得，好奇的人工智能会愿意促进人类发展，看看我们最终会变成什么样。一个繁荣起来、走向多行星的人类文明会是什么样？我认为，好奇的人工智能会愿意助力人类。人类生活在多个星球上的未来，比那些星球上一个人也没有的未来更有意思。

[原文] [Walter Isaacson]: So, the most interesting outcome is the most likely?

[译文] [Walter Isaacson]: 所以，最有意思的结果最有可能发生？

[原文] [Elon Musk]: Yes. Well, generally, I think that's true for a different reason, which is that if simulation theory is correct, then any simulations that are boring will be truncated.

[译文] [Elon Musk]: 对。不过，我总体上认为这是真的，理由却不同：如果模拟理论成立，那么无聊的模拟都会被终止。