How to Think About Risk with Howard Marks

章节 1：什么是风险与投资者的能力测试

📝 本节摘要：

本节探讨了风险的定义以及它如何作为衡量投资者能力的终极标准。霍华德·马克斯通过对比不同基金经理在市场涨跌中的表现，指出真正的投资能力在于“不对称性”——在市场好时能获取同等收益，在市场差时能有效减少损失。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: hi I'm Howard marks and this is how to think about risk the title of this class is how to think about risk that's an important title not what to think how to think

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 大家好，我是霍华德·马克斯，这是关于“如何思考风险”的课程，这节课的标题是“如何思考风险”，这个标题很重要，它教的不是“思考什么”，而是“如何思考”。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the first question is what is risk risk in my opinion is the ultimate test of an Investor's skill

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 第一个问题是，什么是风险？在我看来，风险是对投资者能力的终极考验。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: the return alone doesn't tell you how good a job the manager did the key question is you see the return you must ask how much risk did the manager bear to get that return

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 单看回报率并不能告诉你这位基金经理做得有多好，关键问题在于，当你看到回报时，你必须问：基金经理为了获得这个回报承担了多少风险？

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's look at this range of managers what we posit is that the market is up 10% or down 10%

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在让我们来看看不同类型的基金经理，我们假设市场上涨10%或下跌10%。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's look at some individual managers the first one is up 10 when the Market's up 10 and down 10 when the Market's down 10 ACC lishes nothing

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在我们来看看一些具体的基金经理，第一位在市场上涨10%时收益10%，在市场下跌10%时亏损10%，这毫无建树。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you might as well have invested in an index fund that emulates the performance of the market no skill no value added

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你还不如去投资一只追踪市场表现的指数基金（Index Fund），这体现不出任何能力，也没有创造附加值（Value Added）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: now let's look at the second one up 20 when the market goes up 10 down 20 when the market goes down 10 no skill no value added just a lot of aggressiveness

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 现在看看第二位，市场上涨10%时他涨20%，市场下跌10%时他跌20%，同样没有体现能力，没有附加值，只是非常激进（Aggressiveness）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: what about this one up five when the Market's up 10 down five when the Market's down 10 again no selection ability no discernment no value added just defensiveness

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 那么这位呢？市场上涨10%时他涨5%，市场下跌10%时他跌5%，同样，没有选股能力（Selection Ability），没有洞察力（Discernment），没有附加值，仅仅是具备防御性（Defensiveness）。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: you don't need help in achieving that and you sure shouldn't pay a lot for it

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 你不需要别人的帮助就能做到这一点，而且你绝对不应该为此支付高昂的费用。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but what about the next one he or she is up 15 when the Market's up 10 and down 10 when the Market's down 10

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是下一位经理呢？当市场上涨10%时，他（或她）涨了15%；当市场下跌10%时，跌了10%。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: so in other words Market type losses on the downside but Superior gains on the upside value added what I call asymmetry does better in the good times than does poorly in the bad times

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 换句话说，在下行期承受市场同等水平的损失，但在上行期获得了超额收益，这就是附加值，我称之为“不对称性（Asymmetry）”——在好光景中的表现优于在坏光景中的表现。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but what about this one and I think this is the most interest I think maybe it characterizes Me Maybe it char izes oak tree to some extent

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是这一位呢？我认为这是最有趣的，我觉得这也许描绘了我的特点，也许在某种程度上也描绘了橡树资本（Oaktree）的特点。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: up 10 when the Market's up 10 down five when the Market's down 10 so Market type gains in the good times

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 市场上涨10%时收益10%，市场下跌10%时亏损5%，即在好光景中获得市场同等水平的收益。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: I personally think that performing with the market when it does well is good enough and that's almost all the time nobody should have to beat the market when it does well

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 我个人认为，当市场表现良好时，能与市场表现同步就已经足够好了，而这几乎占据了绝大部分时间，当市场表现良好时，没有人非得去击败市场。

[原文] [Howard Marks]: but if you can do that and at the same time be ready to decline less when the market has it down spells I think that's accomplishing something very important

[译文] [Howard Marks]: 但是如果你能做到这一点，并且同时准备好在市场出现下行期（Down Spells）时减少跌幅，我认为这就是取得了一项非常重要的成就。