Ray Dalio: How to Survive the Coming Civil War and Plot to Use Debt and CBDCs to Enslave You

章节 1：文明兴衰的周期与五大驱动力之首：货币秩序

📝 本节摘要：

本节作为访谈的开篇，主持人回顾了嘉宾（Ray Dalio）关于帝国兴衰周期更迭的理论，并请其详细阐述国家发展周期的演变及美国当前所处的位置。Dalio指出，所有国家都被各种“秩序（Orders）”驱动，其中最基础的就是“货币秩序”。他详述了货币系统如何通过信贷创造繁荣，以及随着债务累积，偿债压力如何不断挤压实体消费。当地缘政治危机与美元等世界储备货币的供需失衡交织时，货币系统的崩溃风险将急剧增加。

[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Ray Dalio, thank you very much. We spoke last year in Exactly this place and and you outlined in part kind of the cycle that you see in civilizations uh vying for supremacy of the world.

[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio），非常感谢您。去年我们在完全相同的地方交谈过，您部分概述了您所看到的文明在争夺世界霸权时所经历的那种周期。

[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: Um and not everyone I think bought kind of bought into your views on this and you were derided as um you know a Jeremiah scaring people and everything.

[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 嗯，我想并不是每个人都接受了您在这个问题上的观点，您被嘲笑为，嗯，您懂的，一个恐吓人们的“耶利米”（注：悲观预言者）等等。

[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: A year later, you have a new summary of ideas that you've been formulating for a long time out this week and about 18 people have sent it to me and so I think we've reached a moment where people are ready to hear what you're saying.

[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 一年过去了，本周您发布了一份关于您构思已久的新思想总结，大约有18个人把它发给了我，所以我认为我们已经到了一个人人都准备好倾听您发声的时刻了。

[原文] [Tucker Carlson]: So, if you wouldn't mind outlining in whatever detail you like the cycle that you see that countries go through and where our country, the US is in that cycle.

[译文] [Tucker Carlson]: 所以，如果您不介意的话，请以您喜欢的任何细致程度，概述一下您所看到的国家所经历的周期，以及我们的国家——美国，目前处于那个周期的什么位置。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Gladly. Um, yeah. So there's um there's a cycle, there are orders, there are systems, right?

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 乐意之至。嗯，是的。所以，存在着，嗯，存在着一种周期，存在着各类秩序（orders），存在着不同的系统（systems），对吧？

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there's a monetary order. Um how does the economy work? You put in money creates credit.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 首先有一个货币秩序（monetary order）。嗯，经济是如何运作的？您投入货币，就创造了信贷（credit）。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: People with credit take do things with that. They borrow if they can uh earn enough money to pay back.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 拥有信贷的人利用它来做事情。如果他们能，呃，赚到足够的钱来偿还，他们就会去借贷。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: Uh the system works well. They create productivity. They create opportunities. The capital markets and so on. That's the monetary system.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 呃，系统运转良好。他们创造生产力。他们创造机会。各种资本市场等等。这就是货币系统。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: And the way that works um in the cycle is that when there's no debt um such as in 1945 we start a new monetary order there's no debt there's a system and it builds up over a period of time and it's a mechanics that when incomes when debt service payments rise relative to incomes it squeezes out other spending the way it would do for you as an individual the way it would do for uh companies except governments can print money but that squeezes out spending and that becomes a problem and then um you also have a supply demand problem.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 而这种机制在周期中运作的方式是，嗯，当没有债务时，嗯，比如在1945年我们启动了一个新的货币秩序，没有债务，有一个系统，然后它在一段时间内累积起来，这是一种力学机制，当收入……当偿债支付相对于收入上升时，它会挤出其他消费，就像对您个人而言会发生的那样，就像对，呃，公司会发生的那样，除了政府可以印钞，但这会挤出消费并成了一个问题，然后，嗯，您还会面临一个供需问题。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So when you have a new monetary system which the United States um had the new monetary system and the dollar was the world's reserve currency then uh you can sell a lot more uh of the debt.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 所以，当您拥有一个新的货币系统时——美国，嗯，当时拥有新的货币系统，美元是世界储备货币（reserve currency）——那么，呃，您就能卖出更多，呃，更多的债务。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: So there's a supply and a demand, right? And so when that builds up and everybody's one man's debts are another man's assets and they build up holding a lot of uh dollar denominated debt and then they sell a lot more debt then there's a mechanics of that supply demand and then when you have politics and world politics geopolitics enter into it that monetary system is more at risk for those reasons.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 因此存在供给和需求，对吧？所以当其累积起来，所有人的……一个人的债务就是另一个人的资产，他们累积持有大量，呃，以美元计价的债务，然后他们再卖出更多债务时，就会出现这种供需机制，接着，当政治和世界政治、地缘政治（geopolitics）介入其中时，由于这些原因，那个货币系统面临的风险就会更大。

[原文] [Ray Dalio]: We'll get into that. But the first force of these five forces is the mechanics of this uh process which is the monetary system.

[译文] [Ray Dalio]: 我们稍后会深入探讨这点。但这五大力量中的第一种力量，就是这个，呃，过程的运作机制，即货币系统。

如果您对第1章的处理格式和内容满意，请告诉我，我将继续为您输出第2章：内部政治分化、地缘政治秩序崩溃与其他驱动力量的内容！

非常乐意！