Who’s Winning The AI Race? + Software’s Future — With Sridhar Ramaswamy

章节 1：AI 竞赛现状：OpenAI 与 Google 的双雄对决

📝 本节摘要：

本节主要探讨了 AI 领域的当前竞争格局。主持人 Alex 与 Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy 讨论了 OpenAI 与 Google 之间的角力——前者与 Nvidia 结成“不自在的联姻”，后者则拥有模型与 TPU 的垂直整合优势。Sridhar 指出，顶尖模型厂商（OpenAI、Anthropic、Gemini）与其他竞争者之间存在巨大鸿沟，但鉴于技术迭代极快，任何领先地位都极其脆弱。他强调比赛尚处于早期阶段，但现有模型在创造价值（特别是软件工程领域）方面已展现出深远潜力。

[原文] [Alex Kantrowitz]: Welcome to Big Technology Podcast a show for coolheaded and nuance conversation of the tech world and beyond We have a great show for you today We're going to talk about the state of the AI race looking at the Open AI versus Google access with someone who really knows what's going on in the competition And we'll also take a look at the state of AI agents and what AI programs can do when they organize their data Well we have the perfect guest to do it with us here today Sar Ramaswami is here He is the CEO of Snowflake third time on the show Welcome back Swedar

[译文] [Alex Kantrowitz]: 欢迎来到 Big Technology Podcast，这是一个对科技界及其他领域进行冷静且细致对话的节目。今天我们为大家准备了精彩的内容。我们将探讨 AI 竞赛的现状，特别是聚焦 OpenAI 与 Google 之间的较量，我们要连线一位真正了解这场竞争内幕的专家。我们还将审视 AI 代理（AI agents）的发展现状，以及 AI 程序在组织好数据后能发挥什么作用。好吧，我们今天请到了最完美的嘉宾来和我们要一起讨论，Sridhar Ramaswamy 来了。他是 Snowflake 的 CEO，这是他第三次做客本节目。欢迎回来，Sridhar。

[原文] [Sridhar Ramaswamy]: Alex always great to talk to you Thank you for having me

[译文] [Sridhar Ramaswamy]: Alex，和你聊天总是很棒。谢谢邀请我。

[原文] [Alex Kantrowitz]: So it's been a couple years since we've spoken For those who uh don't know you you spent 15 years at Google Uh your last job there was the SVP of ads and commerce You founded Neva an ads-free search engine in 2019 You sold that to Snowflake in 2023 You became the CEO of Snowflake in 2024 Snowflake for the uninitiated 59 billion public company It is a data cloud company which stores analyzes and helps you share data And you really have a front seat to the AI race So let's begin with the AI race Just give us your perspective on the state of the AI race Now it seemed like for a while there was OpenAI and the rest Now it seems like there's two axes that are forming the I'll call it the uncomfortable marriage of OpenAI and Nvidia and then the uh the Google side of things where they have the model the TPUs and they seem to be giving the incumbent a run for their money What's your perspective

[译文] [Alex Kantrowitz]: 我们有几年没聊了。对于那些不了解你的人来说，你在 Google 待了 15 年，你在那里的上一份工作是广告与商业高级副总裁（SVP）。你在 2019 年创立了无广告搜索引擎 Neeva，并在 2023 年将其卖给了 Snowflake。你在 2024 年成为了 Snowflake 的 CEO。对于不了解 Snowflake 的人来说，这是一家市值 590 亿美元的上市公司。它是一家数据云公司，负责存储、分析并帮助你共享数据。你确实坐在 AI 竞赛的前排席位上。所以让我们从 AI 竞赛开始吧。请谈谈你对 AI 竞赛现状的看法。有一段时间看起来像是 OpenAI 独领风骚，其他人紧随其后。现在看来形成了两个轴心：我称之为 OpenAI 和 Nvidia 之间那种“不自在的联姻”（uncomfortable marriage），然后是 Google 这边，他们拥有模型和 TPU（张量处理单元），而且看起来正在给领先者带来激烈的竞争。你的观点是什么？

[原文] [Sridhar Ramaswamy]: first of all the AI race changes every month We should all feel great about making predictions because one of them will come true and it'll the world will change enough that we have to make new predictions I think u the gap between the truly great model makers of the present era it's like open AI the anthropic and Gemini very much in that mix and uh everyone else is quite staggering and it's also a world in which no incumbent should feel comfortable about their position because things are changing so much and a great new model can sometimes end up producing a lead that's like a year long which is an eternity in uh in today's world and um and so I would say from that perspective it's early there's a lot of change what is also quite profound about this moment is the things that we can get done with the models that have already been launched where it's merely an issue of stuff like mechanics for can you get inference capacity it's a lot easier to solve I think that's the part that sometimes people overlook about what is remarkable about this moment these models they can do amazing things we'll get into some of the things that we snowflake are doing I think it is their ability to create value their ability to help among the most priced of professions today software engineering I think that's the thing that will drive so much impact

[译文] [Sridhar Ramaswamy]: 首先，AI 竞赛每个月都在变化。我们都应该对做预测感到兴奋，因为其中某个预测会成真，然后世界会发生足够大的变化，以至于我们不得不做出新的预测。我认为在这个时代，真正伟大的模型制造者——比如 OpenAI、Anthropic 和 Gemini 这一梯队——与其他人之间的差距是相当惊人的。而且这也是一个没有任何在位者（incumbent）应该对自己的位置感到舒适的世界，因为事情变化太快了，一个伟大的新模型有时能产生长达一年的领先优势，这在当今世界简直就是永恒。所以我想说，从这个角度看，现在还很早，充满了变数。在这个时刻同样深刻的是，利用已经发布的模型我们能完成的事情，现在这仅仅变成了诸如“你能否获得推理能力（inference capacity）”这样的机制问题，这是更容易解决的。我认为这正是人们有时忽略的当前时刻的非凡之处——这些模型能做令人惊叹的事情。我们稍后会深入探讨我们在 Snowflake 做的一些事情。我认为是它们创造价值的能力，是它们帮助当今最昂贵的职业之一——软件工程——的能力，我认为这将是驱动如此巨大影响力的关键因素。

[原文] [Sridhar Ramaswamy]: Lots more to come but I would say it's very very early in the AI race

[译文] [Sridhar Ramaswamy]: 未来还有很多发展，但我想说，AI 竞赛目前还处于非常非常早期的阶段。