Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on the Future of AI

章节 1：AI 的指数级进化与代码革命

📝 本节摘要：

在本节中，Dario Amodei 反驳了“通用人工智能（AGI）”这一单一拐点的概念，主张 AI 的发展是一个类似“摩尔定律”的平滑指数级过程，智能水平每 4-12 个月翻一番。他以编程为例，指出 AI 已能接管大部分初级甚至高级软件工程师的任务，并预言这种指数级增长将在未来 1-2 年内迎来“急剧上升”的时刻，彻底超越人类认知。

[原文] [Host]: Can we start with the kind of rough status of how the industry is going? You and your rivals, how close are we now to artificial general intelligence? Set the stage for us first and then we can talk about the morality of it all.

[译文] [主持人]: 我们能先大致了解一下行业的现状吗？你和你的竞争对手们，我们现在距离“通用人工智能（AGI）”还有多远？先为我们设定一下背景，然后我们可以再谈论这一切背后的道德问题。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Yeah. Yeah. Thanks for. Thanks for having me. I mean, you know, I've never liked the artificial general intelligence or superintelligence. Not because I don't think is very powerful. Right. I'm not I'm not a skeptic. I'm actually extreme in terms of my views of how powerful the technology is going to be.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 好的，好的。谢谢。谢谢邀请我。我是说，你知道，我从来不喜欢“通用人工智能（AGI）”或“超级智能（Superintelligence）”这种说法。并不是因为我不认为它很强大。对。我不是怀疑论者。实际上，对于这项技术将变得多么强大，我的观点是极端的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But it's the wrong model for thinking about it, that there will be some one point where we build something completely different. What we see here, actually, what we've seen for the last ten years, maybe even 15, and you know, me and therapist co-founders were among the first to document it is this very smooth, exponential, exponential process.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但这是一种错误的思考模型，即认为会在某个单一时间点，我们要么构建出某种完全不同的东西。实际上我们在这里看到的，以及过去十年甚至十五年所看到的——你知道，我和 Anthropic（原文误听为 therapist）的联合创始人们是最早记录这一现象的人之一——是一个非常平滑的、指数级的、指数级的过程。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Just like in the nineties, you saw Moore's Law that, you know, the the amount of computing power would double every 12 months or every 18 months. We have a moore's Law like law, except it's for intelligence itself, for for the cognitive ability of the model across many tasks.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 就像在九十年代，你看到了摩尔定律（Moore's Law），即计算能力每 12 个月或 18 个月翻一番。我们也有一个类似摩尔定律的定律，只不过它是针对智能本身的，针对模型在许多任务中的认知能力（cognitive ability）。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And so what we are seeing is that that cognitive ability is, you know, depending on how you measure it, doubling every, you know, four to 4 to 12 months. And so, you know, we're just climbing the ladder of cognitive ability.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以我们看到的是，这种认知能力——取决于你怎么衡量——每 4 到 12 个月就会翻一番。因此，你知道，我们正沿着认知能力的阶梯向上攀登。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And where we are now is, you know, to take coding as one example that's been exploding really fast over the last year or two. I have engineers. In fact, the team that leads one of our lead products called Code, which is the way you use our models for for coding. He says he hasn't written any code in the last two months. He's it's all caught he's he's edited it he's looked at it but it's all been written by Claude.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我们现在的处境，拿编程（coding）作为一个例子，它在过去一两年里发展得非常快。我有工程师——事实上，领导我们要产品之一“Code”（指代编程相关产品）的团队负责人，也就是你们使用我们模型进行编程的方式——他说他在过去两个月里没有写过任何代码。全是 Claude 写的，他只是编辑了它，检查了它，但全都是由 Claude 编写的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: Indeed. We recently released this thing called Coachwork, which was bringing code code to, you know, non-coding tasks. It really seems to have taken off. We wrote it in like a week and a half, almost entirely with code code.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 确实。我们最近发布了一个叫 Coachwork（注：可能是指 Artifacts 或类似工具的内部代号或误听）的东西，它将代码带入了非编程任务中。它似乎真的腾飞了。我们大概花了一周半的时间编写它，几乎完全是用代码工具（code code）完成的。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: So I think we're entering the world where, you know, the junior level software engineers, maybe many of the tasks of the more senior level software engineers are starting to be done, you know, most of the way by buying AI systems now that's going to go further can be more end to end the project to me more.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 所以我认为我们正在进入这样一个世界，初级软件工程师的工作，也许还有更高级软件工程师的许多任务，正开始大部分由购买的 AI 系统来完成。这将进一步发展，对我来说，它将能够更端到端（end to end）地完成项目。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: But I think we're going to be surprised at how the exponential turns upward. Right? The whole the whole thing about exponentials is, you know, it looks like it's going very, very slowly. It speeds up a little bit and then it just zooms past you.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 但我认为我们会对这种指数级增长如何“向上转折”感到惊讶。对吧？关于指数级增长（exponentials）的全部要点在于，它看起来进展得非常非常慢。它稍微加速一点，然后突然就从你身边呼啸而过（zooms past you）。

[原文] [Dario Amodei]: And I think we're I think we're on the precipice. I think we're a year or two away from it, really zooming past us. So it's very like going bankrupt.

[译文] [Dario Amodei]: 我认为我们正处于悬崖边缘（precipice）。我认为我们距离它真正从我们身边呼啸而过只有一两年的时间。这非常像破产的过程（注：引用海明威名言“Gradually, then suddenly”）。