The arrival of AGI | Shane Legg (co-founder of DeepMind)

章节 1：引言与AGI的定义 (Introduction & Defining AGI)

📝 本节摘要：

本章涵盖了播客的开场白及主持人 Hannah Fry 对 Shane Legg 的介绍。作为 Google DeepMind 的联合创始人，Shane Legg 曾普及了“AGI”一词。Shane 在对话中提出了他对“最小化通用人工智能（Minimal AGI）”的定义：即一个至少能完成普通人通常能完成的认知任务的人工智能体。他认为当前的 AI 系统已经不仅仅是展现出智能的“火花”，在语言能力和通用知识等方面甚至已经超越了人类，但在达到完全的通用性之前，仍处于一个不平衡的发展阶段。

[原文] [Shane Legg (Teaser)]: So is human intelligence going to be the upper limit of what's possible? I think absolutely not. I do wonder what all of this means for people. I mean if we are getting to a point where essentially I mean human intelligence is dwarfed by super intelligence what does that mean for society? It means a massive transformation. This is actually something which is going to structurally change the economy and society and all kinds of things and we need to think about how do we structure this new world.

[译文] [Shane Legg (预告)]: 那么人类智能会是可能性的上限吗？我认为绝对不是。我确实在想这一切对人类意味着什么。我的意思是，如果我们到达了这样一个阶段，即人类智能在超级智能（Super Intelligence）面前显得相形见绌，那对社会意味着什么？这意味着一场巨大的变革。这实际上将结构性地改变经济、社会以及各类事物，我们需要思考如何构建这个新世界。

[原文] [Hannah Fry]: Welcome to Google Deep Mind the podcast with me your host Professor Hannah Fry. AGI is coming that's what everyone seems to be saying. Well today my guest on the podcast is Shane Legg, chief AGI scientist and co-founder of Google Deep Mind. Shane has been talking about AGI for decades even back when it was considered in his words the lunatic fringe. He is credited with popularizing the term and making some of the earliest attempts to work out what it might actually be.

[译文] [Hannah Fry]: 欢迎收听 Google DeepMind 播客，我是主持人 Hannah Fry 教授。AGI（通用人工智能）即将来临，这似乎是大家都在说的话。今天我播客的嘉宾是 Google DeepMind 的首席 AGI 科学家兼联合创始人 Shane Legg。Shane 谈论 AGI 已经几十年了，甚至早在它被认为是——用他的话来说——“疯狂边缘（lunatic fringe）”的时候。他被公认为普及了这个术语，并做出了最早的一些尝试来弄清楚它究竟可能是什么。

[原文] [Hannah Fry]: Now in the conversation today we're going to talk to him about how AGI should be defined, how we might recognize it when it arrives, how to make sure that it is safe and ethical and then crucially what the world looks like once we get there and I have to tell you Shane was remarkably candid about the ways that the whole of society will be impacted over the coming decade. It's definitely worth staying with us for that discussion. Welcome to the podcast Shane.,

[译文] [Hannah Fry]: 在今天的对话中，我们将与他探讨应如何定义 AGI、当它到来时我们该如何识别它、如何确保它是安全且合乎伦理的，以及至关重要的一点——一旦我们到达那个阶段，世界会是什么样子。我必须告诉你们，Shane 对未来十年整个社会将受到的影响表现得异常坦诚。绝对值得留下来听听这次讨论。欢迎来到播客，Shane。

[原文] [Hannah Fry]: Uh we last spoke to you five years ago and then you were telling us your your sort of vision for what AGI might look like in terms of the AI citizens that we got now today do you think that they're showing little sparks of being AGI?

[译文] [Hannah Fry]: 呃，我们要上次和你交谈是在五年前，当时你告诉了我们你对 AGI 可能是什么样子的愿景。就我们今天拥有的这些 AI “公民”而言，你认为它们是否展现出了成为 AGI 的一点点火花？

[原文] [Shane Legg]: Yeah I think it's a lot more than sparks. More than sparks? Oh yeah yeah. So my my definition of AGI or sometimes call minimal AGI is it's an artificial agent that can at least do the kinds of cognitive things people can typically do.

[译文] [Shane Legg]: 是的，我认为远不止是火花。（Fry：不止是火花？）噢是的，是的。我对 AGI 的定义，或者有时称之为“最小化通用人工智能（Minimal AGI）”，是指一种至少能做人们通常能做的那些认知类事务的人工智能体。

[原文] [Shane Legg]: Yeah and I like that bar because if it's less than that it feels like well it's failing to do things we'd cognitive things that we'd expect people to be able to do so it feels like we're not really there yet. On the other hand if I set the minimal bar much higher than that I'm setting it at a level where many people a lot of people wouldn't actually be able to do some of the things we're requiring of the AGI.,

[译文] [Shane Legg]: 是的，我喜欢这个标准，因为如果低于这个标准，感觉就像……好吧，它无法完成我们期望人类能做到的那些认知事务，所以感觉我们还没真正到达那里。另一方面，如果我把这个最低标准设得比这高很多，那我设定的水平就是许多人——很多人——实际上无法完成我们要求 AGI 去做的某些事情的水平。

[原文] [Shane Legg]: So you know we we believe people have some sort of I don't know general intelligence you might call it so I feels like if it if an AI can do the kinds of cognitive things people can typically do at least possibly more then we should sort of consider it within that kind of a class.

[译文] [Shane Legg]: 你知道，我们相信人类拥有某种——我不知道该怎么叫——通用智能，所以我觉得如果一个 AI 能做人们通常能做的那类认知事务，甚至可能更多，那我们就应该把它归入那一类。

[原文] [Hannah Fry]: The stuff that we have now where is it on those levels right?

[译文] [Hannah Fry]: 我们现在拥有的东西，在这个层级上处于什么位置呢？

[原文] [Shane Legg]: Um so it's uneven so it's already much much better than people that say speaking languages so it'll speak 150 languages or something nobody can do that uh and it general knowledge is phenomenal i can ask it about uh you know the suburb I grew up in a small town in New Zealand and it happens to know things about it right.

[译文] [Shane Legg]: 嗯，它是参差不齐的。所以在比如讲语言方面，它已经比人类好得多了，它能讲150种语言之类的，没人能做到这一点。而且它的通用知识是惊人的，我可以问它关于——你知道——我在新西兰长大的那个郊区小镇，而它碰巧知道关于那里的事情，对吧。