LinkedIn Founder: Double Your Income With AI Before It's Too Late | Reid Hoffman

章节 1：人工智能浪潮才刚刚开始

📝 本节摘要：

Reid Hoffman认为，当前人工智能的普及还处于很早期，编码能力只是更广泛推理能力的一种体现，未来会延伸到旅行规划、创作等多种工作。随着个人智能体逐渐融入日常协作，人们需要重新理解工作方式与创造力所面临的变化。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: We've seen Claude releasing this 200-line code that brought the B2B market down. We lost $300 billion of market value.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 我们看到 Claude 发布了这段 200 行代码，导致 B2B 市场下跌。市场价值蒸发了 3000 亿美元。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: All of that is literally just beginning, but is all line of sight.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 这一切真的才刚刚开始，但都已经可以预见。

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: This is Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, legendary investor who was among the first to see every major tech wave coming. And what he's saying now should concern anyone with a career.

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 他就是 LinkedIn 联合创始人、传奇投资人 Reid Hoffman，也是最早洞察每一轮重大科技浪潮的人之一。他现在说的话，任何有职业生涯的人都该认真听听。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: There aren't individual contributing workers anymore that we all deploy with a set of AIs. So what do I do? What do people like me do?

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 今后，我们不再只是安排一群独立的贡献型员工，而是让每个人都配备一组 AI。那我该怎么办？像我这样的人该怎么办？

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: Even most people who say, "Oh yeah, I'm using AI," are not using it seriously enough.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 即使是那些说“哦，对，我在用 AI”的人，大多数用得也还不够深入。

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: You've been mentioning this a lot: everyone will have a set of agents working for them. Is it possible now, or are we still not quite there yet?

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 你一直常提到，未来每个人都会有一组智能体为自己工作。现在已经能做到这点了吗，还是我们还没走到那一步？

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: It's totally possible now.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 现在完全做得到。

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: So for someone who has a 9-to-5 job, what's the first thing they should do to double their income this year?

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 对于朝九晚五上班的人来说，今年想让收入翻倍，第一步该做什么？

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: Oh, that's interesting. Maybe the simplest one is

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 哦，这问题有意思。也许最简单的办法是……

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: And we're super excited that we're talking again a year later, so we can revisit some of the things that you said last year. It's been a crazy year.

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 很高兴一年后我们又聊上了，可以回顾一下你去年说过的一些事情。这一年真是变化太大了。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: Yeah.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 是啊。

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: And I see ChatGPT everywhere. People are using different tools to build their own things. Is this the AI boom, or is it like 10% of what we're going to see?

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 现在到处都能看到 ChatGPT。大家也在用各种工具做自己的东西。这就是 AI 热潮了吗，还是说这只是未来发展的 10%？

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: Maybe 5%.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 也许只有 5%。

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: 5%.

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 5%。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: Yeah. Obviously, the last couple of years people have been talking about it a lot, and one of the things—we should get you, and we'll figure out how to get to you—but I actually made an AI Christmas record.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 是啊。过去几年大家显然一直在热烈讨论 AI。有件事我得让你听听，我们再想办法把它给你——我其实做了一张 AI 圣诞专辑。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: You know, kind of AI music I'd want to see around Christmas, and it's just beginning to scratch what these kinds of possibilities are. Because, by the way, I'm not qualified to make a record. I have none of the skills, but with AI, you can do that. And so what I think people are undertracking is they're seeing, of course, the general discussion of Codex and Cloud Code and other things, and they're not realizing how that spreads out to every portion of human work and creativity. It isn't just, "Oh, we all have a software agent as our copilot doing stuff for us." Yes, that'll be true, too. But the coding capabilities are generalized reasoning capabilities that then enable a bunch of things. They enable you to say, "Well, you know what I've always wanted for someone working with me…"

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 就是我希望圣诞节期间能听到的那种 AI 音乐，而这才刚刚展现出这些可能性的一小部分。顺便说，我根本不具备制作专辑的条件，也没有相关技能，但有了 AI，你就能做到。我觉得大家低估的是：他们当然看到了 Codex、Cloud Code 等工具引发的广泛讨论，却没意识到这些能力会扩展到人类工作的方方面面，也会影响创造力。它不只是“我们都有一个软件智能体副驾驶，替我们做事”。这当然也会发生。但编码能力其实体现了通用的推理能力，进而让很多事情成为可能。比如，你可以说：“你知道吗，我一直想要一个人帮我……”

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: as a travel agent, as someone who really understood, you know, my love of particular kinds of archaeology. Could you then be the travel agent that figured out like where and what and d and could possibly book things and all like all of that is literally just beginning but is all line of sight. So I think we're literally like for example we're a small in number of years by which we realize something I've been saying for the last couple which is there aren't individual contributing workers anymore that we all deploy with a set of AIs like for example almost for sure when we're doing this conversation let's just project next year since we did last year

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: ……做我的旅行顾问，也能理解我对某些考古主题的兴趣。你能不能帮我规划去哪里、做什么，甚至代我预订？这一切真的才刚开始，但都已经可以预见。我觉得再过几年，我们就会意识到我过去几年一直在说的事：我们不再只是安排一群独立的贡献型员工，而是让每个人都配备一组 AI。比如，几乎可以肯定，明年我们再进行这样的对话时——就像去年我们预测今年一样——

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: we'll have you like your tablet will have an AI agent that's going oh ask him about this or when he said this do this or you know like like that kind of thing will be amongst what we're doing. That's the reason why I'm like not 10% maybe 5% maybe 2%.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: ……你的平板上会有一个 AI 智能体提醒你：“哦，可以问他这个”，或者“他说到这儿时，你可以接着做这件事”，诸如此类。这些都会成为我们工作的一部分。所以我才说，现在可能连 10% 都不到，也许是 5%，甚至 2%。

[原文] [Marina Mogilko]: Yeah.

[译文] [Marina Mogilko]: 是啊。

[原文] [Reid Hoffman]: Yeah.

[译文] [Reid Hoffman]: 是啊。